Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable advances in mathematical and logical reasoning, yet statistics, as a distinct and integrative discipline, remains underexplored in benchmarking efforts. To address this gap, we introduce StatEval, the first comprehensive benchmark dedicated to statistics, spanning both breadth and depth across difficulty levels. StatEval consists of 13,817 foundational problems covering undergraduate and graduate curricula, together with 2374 research-level proof tasks extracted from leading journals. To construct the benchmark, we design a scalable multi-agent pipeline with human-in-the-loop validation that automates large-scale problem extraction, rewriting, and quality control, while ensuring academic rigor. We further propose a robust evaluation framework tailored to both computational and proof-based tasks, enabling fine-grained assessment of reasoning ability. Experimental results reveal that while closed-source models such as GPT5-mini achieve below 57\% on research-level problems, with open-source models performing significantly lower. These findings highlight the unique challenges of statistical reasoning and the limitations of current LLMs. We expect StatEval to serve as a rigorous benchmark for advancing statistical intelligence in large language models. All data and code are available on our web platform: https://stateval.github.io/.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential to accelerate scientific discovery as valuable tools for analyzing data, generating hypotheses, and supporting innovative approaches in various scientific fields. In this work, we investigate how LLMs can handle the transition from conceptual research ideas to well-structured research plans. Effective research planning not only supports scientists in advancing their research but also represents a crucial capability for the development of autonomous research agents. Despite its importance, the field lacks a systematic understanding of LLMs' research planning capability. To rigorously measure this capability, we introduce the Idea2Plan task and Idea2Plan Bench, a benchmark built from 200 ICML 2025 Spotlight and Oral papers released after major LLM training cutoffs. Each benchmark instance includes a research idea and a grading rubric capturing the key components of valid plans. We further propose Idea2Plan JudgeEval, a complementary benchmark to assess the reliability of LLM-based judges against expert annotations. Experimental results show that GPT-5 and GPT-5-mini achieve the strongest performance on the benchmark, though substantial headroom remains for future improvement. Our study provides new insights into LLMs' capability for research planning and lay the groundwork for future progress.

Recent studies operationalize self-improvement through coding agents that edit their own codebases. They grow a tree of self-modifications through expansion strategies that favor higher software engineering benchmark performance, assuming that this implies more promising subsequent self-modifications. However, we identify a mismatch between the agent's self-improvement potential (metaproductivity) and its coding benchmark performance, namely the Metaproductivity-Performance Mismatch. Inspired by Huxley's concept of clade, we propose a metric (CMP) that aggregates the benchmark performances of the descendants of an agent as an indicator of its potential for self-improvement. We show that, in our self-improving coding agent development setting, access to the true CMP is sufficient to simulate how the G\"odel Machine would behave under certain assumptions. We introduce the Huxley-G\"odel Machine (HGM), which, by estimating CMP and using it as guidance, searches the tree of self-modifications. On SWE-bench Verified and Polyglot, HGM outperforms prior self-improving coding agent development methods while using less wall-clock time. Last but not least, HGM demonstrates strong transfer to other coding datasets and large language models. The agent optimized by HGM on SWE-bench Verified with GPT-5-mini and evaluated on SWE-bench Lite with GPT-5 achieves human-level performance, matching the best officially checked results of human-engineered coding agents. Our code is available at https://github.com/metauto-ai/HGM.

Large language models (LLMs) possess broad world knowledge and strong general-purpose reasoning ability, yet they struggle to learn from many in-context examples on standard machine learning (ML) tasks, that is, to leverage many-shot demonstrations purely via in-context learning (ICL) without gradient descent. We introduce MachineLearningLM, a portable continued-pretraining framework that equips a general-purpose LLM with robust in-context ML capability while preserving its general knowledge and reasoning for broader chat workflows. Our pretraining procedure synthesizes ML tasks from millions of structural causal models (SCMs), spanning shot counts up to 1,024. We begin with a random-forest teacher, distilling tree-based decision strategies into the LLM to strengthen robustness in numerical modeling. All tasks are serialized with a token-efficient prompt, enabling 3x to 6x more examples per context window and delivering up to 50x amortized throughput via batch inference. Despite a modest setup (Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct with LoRA rank 8), MachineLearningLM outperforms strong LLM baselines (e.g., GPT-5-mini) by an average of about 15% on out-of-distribution tabular classification across finance, physics, biology, and healthcare domains. It exhibits a striking many-shot scaling law: accuracy increases monotonically as in-context demonstrations grow from 8 to 1,024. Without any task-specific training, it attains random-forest-level accuracy across hundreds of shots. General chat capabilities, including knowledge and reasoning, are preserved: it achieves 75.4% on MMLU.

Code agents are increasingly trusted to autonomously fix bugs on platforms such as GitHub, yet their security evaluation focuses almost exclusively on functional correctness. In this paper, we reveal a novel type of threat to real-world code agents: Functionally Correct yet Vulnerable (FCV) patches, which pass all test cases but contain vulnerable code. With our proposed FCV-Attack, which can be deliberately crafted by malicious attackers or implicitly introduced by benign developers, we show that SOTA LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT and Claude) and agent scaffolds (e.g., SWE-agent and OpenHands) are all vulnerable to this FCV threat; across 12 agent-model combinations on SWE-Bench, the attack only requires black-box access and a single query to the code agent to perform the attack. For example, for CWE-538 (information exposure vulnerability), the FCV-Attack attains an attack success rate of 40.7% on GPT-5 Mini + OpenHands. Our results reveal an important security threat overlooked by current evaluation paradigms and urge the development of security-aware defenses for code agents.

Continual Learning (CL) methods have traditionally focused on mitigating catastrophic forgetting through gradient-based retraining, an approach ill-suited for deployed agents that must adapt in real time. We introduce our Adaptive Teaching and Learning System (ATLAS), a dual-agent architecture that decouples reasoning (Teacher) from execution (Student) and incorporates a persistent learning memory that stores distilled guidance from experience. This informs the orchestration layer, enabling the system to dynamically adjust its operational strategies, such as supervision level or initial plan selection, at inference time. In doing so, ATLAS achieves gradient-free continual learning, shifting the locus of adaptation from model parameters to system-level orchestration. We formulate this as a system-centric paradigm for continual learning, where the objective is adaptive efficiency: maximizing task success while minimizing computational cost through inference-time orchestration rather than parameter updates. Evaluated on Microsoft's ExCyTIn-Bench, an open-source benchmark simulating complex cyberthreat investigation, ATLAS achieves 54.1% success with GPT-5-mini as its Student, outperforming the larger GPT-5 (High) by 13% while reducing cost by 86%. Cross-incident validation demonstrates generalization: frozen pamphlets from Incident #5 improve accuracy from 28% to 41% with zero retraining, while shifting output composition from verbose exploration to structured reasoning. Together, these findings establish gradient-free continual learning as a viable path toward adaptive, deployable AI systems and provide causally annotated traces valuable for training explicit world models.

Evaluating language models fairly is becoming harder as static benchmarks available on the internet risk contamination by training data. This makes it unclear whether models are truly reasoning or just recalling answers. In this paper, we introduce BeyondBench, an evaluation framework that avoids this problem by using algorithmic problem generation. Unlike traditional benchmarks that risk contamination from internet-scale training data, BeyondBench creates mathematically grounded problems on the fly, ensuring each test remains fresh and uncontaminated. Our framework covers 44 algorithmic tasks with a total of 117 variations, grouped into three difficulty levels: the Easy Suite (29 tasks) for basic arithmetic and statistics, the Medium Suite (5 tasks, 49 variations) for sequence patterns and reasoning, and the Hard Suite (10 tasks, 68 variations) tackling NP-complete and constraint satisfaction problems. Each task generates problems from a combinatorial space larger than 10^15 unique instances, with solutions verified deterministically by mathematical proofs. We evaluated 101 language models, including 85 open-source and 16 closed-source models, spanning sizes from 0.5B to 141B parameters and multiple quantization schemes. Our results show consistent reasoning deficiencies across model families, with performance degrading sharply as problem complexity increases from polynomial to exponential. In our Hard Suite evaluations, models such as Gemini-2.5-pro, Llama-3.3-70B, and Qwen2.5-72B achieved average accuracies of 56.38%, 26.91%, and 33.60%, respectively. Moreover, we observe that performance drops drastically without tool usage, with GPT-5, GPT-5-mini, and GPT-5-nano showing a decline of 16.81%, 28.05%, and 47.59% accuracy on the hard suite. Our leaderboard is publicly available at https://ctrl-gaurav.github.io/BeyondBench/

Forecasting future links is a central task in temporal graph (TG) reasoning, requiring models to leverage historical interactions to predict upcoming ones. Traditional neural approaches, such as temporal graph neural networks, achieve strong performance but lack explainability and cannot be applied to unseen graphs without retraining. Recent studies have begun to explore using large language models (LLMs) for graph reasoning, but most of them are constrained to static graphs or small synthetic TGs and lack the evaluation of the quality of reasoning traces generated by LLMs. In this work, we present Reasoning-Enhanced Learning for Temporal Graphs (ReaL-TG), a reinforcement learning framework that fine-tunes LLMs to perform explainable link forecasting on real-world TGs. ReaL-TG uses outcome-based reward to encourage models to self-explore reasoning strategies from graph structure and to produce explanations that directly justify their predictions. To enable evaluation on LLM-generated reasoning traces, we propose a new evaluation protocol combining ranking metrics with an LLM-as-a-Judge system that assesses both the quality of reasoning and the impact of hallucinations. Experiments with ReaL-TG-4B, obtained by fine-tuning Qwen3-4B under our framework, show that it outperforms much larger frontier LLMs, including GPT-5 mini, on ranking metrics, while producing high-quality explanations confirmed by both the LLM judge and human evaluation.

This study presents PARROT (Persuasion and Agreement Robustness Rating of Output Truth), a robustness focused framework designed to measure the degradation in accuracy that occurs under social pressure exerted on users through authority and persuasion in large language models (LLMs) the phenomenon of sycophancy (excessive conformity). PARROT (i) isolates causal effects by comparing the neutral version of the same question with an authoritatively false version using a double-blind evaluation, (ii) quantifies confidence shifts toward the correct and imposed false responses using log-likelihood-based calibration tracking, and (iii) systematically classifies failure modes (e.g., robust correct, sycophantic agreement, reinforced error, stubborn error, self-correction, etc.) using an eight-state behavioral taxonomy. We evaluated 22 models using 1,302 MMLU-style multiple-choice questions across 13 domains and domain-specific authority templates. Findings show marked heterogeneity: advanced models (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4.1, Claude Sonnet 4.5) exhibit low "follow rates" (leq 11%, GPT-5: 4\%) and minimal accuracy loss, while older/smaller models show severe epistemic collapse (GPT-4: 80\%, Qwen 2.5-1.5B: 94\%). The danger is not limited to response changes; weak models reduce confidence in the correct response while increasing confidence in the imposed incorrect response. While international law and global knowledge at the domain level exhibit high fragility, elementary mathematics is relatively resilient. Consequently, we argue that the goal of "resistance to overfitting pressure" should be addressed as a primary objective alongside accuracy, harm avoidance, and privacy for safe deployment in the real world.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable progress, yet hallucination remains a critical barrier, particularly in chart understanding, which requires sophisticated perceptual and cognitive abilities as well as rigorous factual accuracy. While prior work has investigated hallucinations and chart comprehension independently, their intersection remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we present ChartHal, a benchmark that features a fine-grained taxonomy of hallucination scenarios in chart understanding, along with a human-validated dataset of 1,062 samples. Our evaluation shows that state-of-the-art LVLMs suffer from severe hallucinations on ChartHal, including proprietary models such as GPT-5 and o4-mini, which achieve only 34.46% and 22.79% accuracy, respectively. Further analysis reveals that questions involving information absent from or contradictory to charts are especially likely to trigger hallucinations, underscoring the urgent need for more robust mitigation strategies. Code and data are available at https://github.com/ymcui/ChartHal .

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being adopted as tools for learning; however, most tools remain text-only, limiting their usefulness for domains where visualizations are essential, such as mathematics. Recent work shows that LLMs are capable of generating code that compiles to educational figures, but a major bottleneck remains: scalable evaluation of these diagrams. We address this by proposing DiagramIR: an automatic and scalable evaluation pipeline for geometric figures. Our method relies on intermediate representations (IRs) of LaTeX TikZ code. We compare our pipeline to other evaluation baselines such as LLM-as-a-Judge, showing that our approach has higher agreement with human raters. This evaluation approach also enables smaller models like GPT-4.1-Mini to perform comparably to larger models such as GPT-5 at a 10x lower inference cost, which is important for deploying accessible and scalable education technologies.

Abstract reasoning from minimal examples remains a core unsolved problem for frontier foundation models such as GPT-5 and Grok 4. These models still fail to infer structured transformation rules from a handful of examples, which is a key hallmark of human intelligence. The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence (ARC-AGI) provides a rigorous testbed for this capability, demanding conceptual rule induction and transfer to novel tasks. Most existing methods treat ARC-AGI as a purely textual reasoning task, overlooking the fact that humans rely heavily on visual abstraction when solving such puzzles. However, our pilot experiments reveal a paradox: naively rendering ARC-AGI grids as images degrades performance due to imprecise rule execution. This leads to our central hypothesis that vision and language possess complementary strengths across distinct reasoning stages: vision supports global pattern abstraction and verification, whereas language specializes in symbolic rule formulation and precise execution. Building on this insight, we introduce two synergistic strategies: (1) Vision-Language Synergy Reasoning (VLSR), which decomposes ARC-AGI into modality-aligned subtasks; and (2) Modality-Switch Self-Correction (MSSC), which leverages vision to verify text-based reasoning for intrinsic error correction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach yields up to a 4.33% improvement over text-only baselines across diverse flagship models and multiple ARC-AGI tasks. Our findings suggest that unifying visual abstraction with linguistic reasoning is a crucial step toward achieving generalizable, human-like intelligence in future foundation models. Source code will be released soon.

Specialized clinical AI assistants are rapidly entering medical practice, often framed as safer or more reliable than general-purpose large language models (LLMs). Yet, unlike frontier models, these clinical tools are rarely subjected to independent, quantitative evaluation, creating a critical evidence gap despite their growing influence on diagnosis, triage, and guideline interpretation. We assessed two widely deployed clinical AI systems (OpenEvidence and UpToDate Expert AI) against three state-of-the-art generalist LLMs (GPT-5, Gemini 3 Pro, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) using a 1,000-item mini-benchmark combining MedQA (medical knowledge) and HealthBench (clinician-alignment) tasks. Generalist models consistently outperformed clinical tools, with GPT-5 achieving the highest scores, while OpenEvidence and UpToDate demonstrated deficits in completeness, communication quality, context awareness, and systems-based safety reasoning. These findings reveal that tools marketed for clinical decision support may often lag behind frontier LLMs, underscoring the urgent need for transparent, independent evaluation before deployment in patient-facing workflows.

Translating human-written mathematical theorems and proofs from natural language (NL) into formal languages (FLs) like Lean 4 has long been a significant challenge for AI. Most state-of-the-art methods address this separately, first translating theorems and then generating proofs, creating a fundamental disconnect vis-a-vis true proof auto-formalization. This two-step process and its limitations were evident even in AlphaProof's silver-medal performance at the 2024 IMO, where problem statements needed manual translation before automated proof synthesis. We present ProofBridge, a unified framework for automatically translating entire NL theorems and proofs into Lean 4. At its core is a joint embedding model that aligns NL and FL (NL-FL) theorem-proof pairs in a shared semantic space, enabling cross-modal retrieval of semantically relevant FL examples to guide translation. Our training ensures that NL-FL theorems (and their proofs) are mapped close together in this space if and only if the NL-FL pairs are semantically equivalent. ProofBridge integrates retrieval-augmented fine-tuning with iterative proof repair, leveraging Lean's type checker and semantic equivalence feedback to ensure both syntactic correctness and semantic fidelity. Experiments show substantial improvements in proof auto-formalization over strong baselines (including GPT-5, Gemini-2.5, Kimina-Prover, DeepSeek-Prover), with our retrieval-augmented approach yielding significant gains in semantic correctness (SC, via proving bi-directional equivalence) and type correctness (TC, via type-checking theorem+proof) across pass@k metrics on miniF2F-Test-PF, a dataset we curated. In particular, ProofBridge improves cross-modal retrieval quality by up to 3.28x Recall@1 over all-MiniLM-L6-v2, and achieves +31.14% SC and +1.64% TC (pass@32) compared to the baseline Kimina-Prover-RL-1.7B.