Daily Papers

We propose new methods for in-domain and cross-domain Named Entity Recognition (NER) on historical data for Dutch and French. For the cross-domain case, we address domain shift by integrating unsupervised in-domain data via contextualized string embeddings; and OCR errors by injecting synthetic OCR errors into the source domain and address data centric domain adaptation. We propose a general approach to imitate OCR errors in arbitrary input data. Our cross-domain as well as our in-domain results outperform several strong baselines and establish state-of-the-art results. We publish preprocessed versions of the French and Dutch Europeana NER corpora.

The university management is perpetually in the process of innovating policies to improve the quality of service. Intellectual growth of the students, the popularity of university are some of the major areas that management strives to improve upon. Relevant historical data is needed in support of taking any decision. Furthermore, providing data to various university ranking frameworks is a frequent activity in recent years. The format of such requirement changes frequently which requires efficient manual effort. Maintaining a data warehouse can be a solution to this problem. However, both in-house and outsourced implementation of a dedicated data warehouse may not be a cost-effective and smart solution. This work proposes an educational data warehouse as a service (eDWaaS) model to store historical data for multiple universities. The proposed multi-tenant schema facilitates the universities to maintain their data warehouse in a cost-effective solution. It also addresses the scalability issues in implementing such data warehouse as a service model.

Financial market predictions utilize historical data to anticipate future stock prices and market trends. Traditionally, these predictions have focused on the statistical analysis of quantitative factors, such as stock prices, trading volumes, inflation rates, and changes in industrial production. Recent advancements in large language models motivate the integrated financial analysis of both sentiment data, particularly market news, and numerical factors. Nonetheless, this methodology frequently encounters constraints due to the paucity of extensive datasets that amalgamate both quantitative and qualitative sentiment analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a large-scale financial dataset, namely, Financial News and Stock Price Integration Dataset (FNSPID). It comprises 29.7 million stock prices and 15.7 million time-aligned financial news records for 4,775 S&P500 companies, covering the period from 1999 to 2023, sourced from 4 stock market news websites. We demonstrate that FNSPID excels existing stock market datasets in scale and diversity while uniquely incorporating sentiment information. Through financial analysis experiments on FNSPID, we propose: (1) the dataset's size and quality significantly boost market prediction accuracy; (2) adding sentiment scores modestly enhances performance on the transformer-based model; (3) a reproducible procedure that can update the dataset. Completed work, code, documentation, and examples are available at github.com/Zdong104/FNSPID. FNSPID offers unprecedented opportunities for the financial research community to advance predictive modeling and analysis.

In engineering design, navigating complex decision-making landscapes demands a thorough exploration of the design, performance, and constraint spaces, often impeded by resource-intensive simulations. Data-driven methods can mitigate this challenge by harnessing historical data to delineate feasible domains, accelerate optimization, or evaluate designs. However, the implementation of these methods usually demands machine-learning expertise and multiple trials to choose the right method and hyperparameters. This makes them less accessible for numerous engineering situations. Additionally, there is an inherent trade-off between training speed and accuracy, with faster methods sometimes compromising precision. In our paper, we demonstrate that a recently released general-purpose transformer-based classification model, TabPFN, is both fast and accurate. Notably, it requires no dataset-specific training to assess new tabular data. TabPFN is a Prior-Data Fitted Network, which undergoes a one-time offline training across a broad spectrum of synthetic datasets and performs in-context learning. We evaluated TabPFN's efficacy across eight engineering design classification problems, contrasting it with seven other algorithms, including a state-of-the-art AutoML method. For these classification challenges, TabPFN consistently outperforms in speed and accuracy. It is also the most data-efficient and provides the added advantage of being differentiable and giving uncertainty estimates. Our findings advocate for the potential of pre-trained models that learn from synthetic data and require no domain-specific tuning to make data-driven engineering design accessible to a broader community and open ways to efficient general-purpose models valid across applications. Furthermore, we share a benchmark problem set for evaluating new classification algorithms in engineering design.

The data revolution experienced in recent times has thrown up new challenges and opportunities for businesses of all sizes in diverse industries. Big data analytics is already at the forefront of innovations to help make meaningful business decisions from the abundance of raw data available today. Business intelligence and analytics has become a huge trend in todays IT world as companies of all sizes are looking to improve their business processes and scale up using data driven solutions. This paper aims to demonstrate the data analytical process of deriving business intelligence via the historical data of a fictional bike share company seeking to find innovative ways to convert their casual riders to annual paying registered members. The dataset used is freely available as Chicago Divvy Bicycle Sharing Data on Kaggle. The authors used the RTidyverse library in RStudio to analyse the data and followed the six data analysis steps of ask, prepare, process, analyse, share, and act to recommend some actionable approaches the company could adopt to convert casual riders to paying annual members. The findings from this research serve as a valuable case example, of a real world deployment of BIA technologies in the industry, and a demonstration of the data analysis cycle for data practitioners, researchers, and other potential users.

Machine learning methods have proven useful in transcribing historical data. However, results from even highly accurate methods require manual verification and correction. Such manual review can be time-consuming and expensive, therefore the objective of this paper was to make it more efficient. Previously, we used machine learning to transcribe 2.3 million handwritten occupation codes from the Norwegian 1950 census with high accuracy (97%). We manually reviewed the 90,000 (3%) codes with the lowest model confidence. We allocated those 90,000 codes to human reviewers, who used our annotation tool to review the codes. To assess reviewer agreement, some codes were assigned to multiple reviewers. We then analyzed the review results to understand the relationship between accuracy improvements and effort. Additionally, we interviewed the reviewers to improve the workflow. The reviewers corrected 62.8% of the labels and agreed with the model label in 31.9% of cases. About 0.2% of the images could not be assigned a label, while for 5.1% the reviewers were uncertain, or they assigned an invalid label. 9,000 images were independently reviewed by multiple reviewers, resulting in an agreement of 86.43% and disagreement of 8.96%. We learned that our automatic transcription is biased towards the most frequent codes, with a higher degree of misclassification for the lowest frequency codes. Our interview findings show that the reviewers did internal quality control and found our custom tool well-suited. So, only one reviewer is needed, but they should report uncertainty.

Recent research has demonstrated the potential of deep neural networks (DNNs) to accurately predict wildfire spread on a given day based upon high-dimensional explanatory data from a single preceding day, or from a time series of T preceding days. For the first time, we investigate a large number of existing data-driven wildfire modeling strategies under controlled conditions, revealing the best modeling strategies and resulting in models that achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy for both single-day and multi-day input scenarios, as evaluated on a large public benchmark for next-day wildfire spread, termed the WildfireSpreadTS (WSTS) benchmark. Consistent with prior work, we found that models using time-series input obtained the best overall accuracy, suggesting this is an important future area of research. Furthermore, we create a new benchmark, WSTS+, by incorporating four additional years of historical wildfire data into the WSTS benchmark. Our benchmark doubles the number of unique years of historical data, expands its geographic scope, and, to our knowledge, represents the largest public benchmark for time-series-based wildfire spread prediction.

A critical aspect of power systems research is the availability of suitable data, access to which is limited by privacy concerns and the sensitive nature of energy infrastructure. This lack of data, in turn, hinders the development of modern research avenues such as machine learning approaches or stochastic formulations. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a systematic, data-driven framework for reconstructing high-fidelity time series, using publicly-available grid snapshots and historical data published by transmission system operators. The proposed approach, from geo-spatial data and generation capacity reconstruction, to time series disaggregation, is applied to the French transmission grid. Thereby, synthetic but highly realistic time series data, spanning multiple years with a 5-minute granularity, is generated at the individual component level.

Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) in free-layout pages is a challenging image understanding task that can provide a relevant boost to the digitization of handwritten documents and reuse of their content. The task becomes even more challenging when dealing with historical documents due to the variability of the writing style and degradation of the page quality. State-of-the-art HTR approaches typically couple recurrent structures for sequence modeling with Convolutional Neural Networks for visual feature extraction. Since convolutional kernels are defined on fixed grids and focus on all input pixels independently while moving over the input image, this strategy disregards the fact that handwritten characters can vary in shape, scale, and orientation even within the same document and that the ink pixels are more relevant than the background ones. To cope with these specific HTR difficulties, we propose to adopt deformable convolutions, which can deform depending on the input at hand and better adapt to the geometric variations of the text. We design two deformable architectures and conduct extensive experiments on both modern and historical datasets. Experimental results confirm the suitability of deformable convolutions for the HTR task.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Social media data has become crucial to the advancement of scientific understanding. However, even though it has become ubiquitous, just collecting large-scale social media data involves a high degree of engineering skill set and computational resources. In fact, research is often times gated by data engineering problems that must be overcome before analysis can proceed. This has resulted recognition of datasets as meaningful research contributions in and of themselves. Reddit, the so called "front page of the Internet," in particular has been the subject of numerous scientific studies. Although Reddit is relatively open to data acquisition compared to social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, the technical barriers to acquisition still remain. Thus, Reddit's millions of subreddits, hundreds of millions of users, and hundreds of billions of comments are at the same time relatively accessible, but time consuming to collect and analyze systematically. In this paper, we present the Pushshift Reddit dataset. Pushshift is a social media data collection, analysis, and archiving platform that since 2015 has collected Reddit data and made it available to researchers. Pushshift's Reddit dataset is updated in real-time, and includes historical data back to Reddit's inception. In addition to monthly dumps, Pushshift provides computational tools to aid in searching, aggregating, and performing exploratory analysis on the entirety of the dataset. The Pushshift Reddit dataset makes it possible for social media researchers to reduce time spent in the data collection, cleaning, and storage phases of their projects.

Research in developing data-driven models for Air Traffic Management (ATM) has gained a tremendous interest in recent years. However, data-driven models are known to have long training time and require large datasets to achieve good performance. To address the two issues, this paper proposes a Multi-Agent Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (MA-BERT) model that fully considers the multi-agent characteristic of the ATM system and learns air traffic controllers' decisions, and a pre-training and fine-tuning transfer learning framework. By pre-training the MA-BERT on a large dataset from a major airport and then fine-tuning it to other airports and specific air traffic applications, a large amount of the total training time can be saved. In addition, for newly adopted procedures and constructed airports where no historical data is available, this paper shows that the pre-trained MA-BERT can achieve high performance by updating regularly with little data. The proposed transfer learning framework and MA-BERT are tested with the automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast data recorded in 3 airports in South Korea in 2019.

The modern paradigm in machine learning involves pre-training on diverse data, followed by task-specific fine-tuning. In reinforcement learning (RL), this translates to learning via offline RL on a diverse historical dataset, followed by rapid online RL fine-tuning using interaction data. Most RL fine-tuning methods require continued training on offline data for stability and performance. However, this is undesirable because training on diverse offline data is slow and expensive for large datasets, and in principle, also limit the performance improvement possible because of constraints or pessimism on offline data. In this paper, we show that retaining offline data is unnecessary as long as we use a properly-designed online RL approach for fine-tuning offline RL initializations. To build this approach, we start by analyzing the role of retaining offline data in online fine-tuning. We find that continued training on offline data is mostly useful for preventing a sudden divergence in the value function at the onset of fine-tuning, caused by a distribution mismatch between the offline data and online rollouts. This divergence typically results in unlearning and forgetting the benefits of offline pre-training. Our approach, Warm-start RL (WSRL), mitigates the catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained initializations using a very simple idea. WSRL employs a warmup phase that seeds the online RL run with a very small number of rollouts from the pre-trained policy to do fast online RL. The data collected during warmup helps ``recalibrate'' the offline Q-function to the online distribution, allowing us to completely discard offline data without destabilizing the online RL fine-tuning. We show that WSRL is able to fine-tune without retaining any offline data, and is able to learn faster and attains higher performance than existing algorithms irrespective of whether they retain offline data or not.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.

We explore how multimodal Large Language Models (mLLMs) can help researchers transcribe historical documents, extract relevant historical information, and construct datasets from historical sources. Specifically, we investigate the capabilities of mLLMs in performing (1) Optical Character Recognition (OCR), (2) OCR Post-Correction, and (3) Named Entity Recognition (NER) tasks on a set of city directories published in German between 1754 and 1870. First, we benchmark the off-the-shelf transcription accuracy of both mLLMs and conventional OCR models. We find that the best-performing mLLM model significantly outperforms conventional state-of-the-art OCR models and other frontier mLLMs. Second, we are the first to introduce multimodal post-correction of OCR output using mLLMs. We find that this novel approach leads to a drastic improvement in transcription accuracy and consistently produces highly accurate transcriptions (<1% CER), without any image pre-processing or model fine-tuning. Third, we demonstrate that mLLMs can efficiently recognize entities in transcriptions of historical documents and parse them into structured dataset formats. Our findings provide early evidence for the long-term potential of mLLMs to introduce a paradigm shift in the approaches to historical data collection and document transcription.

The 2021 NeurIPS Machine Learning for Combinatorial Optimization (ML4CO) competition was designed with the goal of improving state-of-the-art combinatorial optimization solvers by replacing key heuristic components with machine learning models. The competition's main scientific question was the following: is machine learning a viable option for improving traditional combinatorial optimization solvers on specific problem distributions, when historical data is available? This was motivated by the fact that in many practical scenarios, the data changes only slightly between the repetitions of a combinatorial optimization problem, and this is an area where machine learning models are particularly powerful at. This paper summarizes the solution and lessons learned by the Huawei EI-OROAS team in the dual task of the competition. The submission of our team achieved the second place in the final ranking, with a very close distance to the first spot. In addition, our solution was ranked first consistently for several weekly leaderboard updates before the final evaluation. We provide insights gained from a large number of experiments, and argue that a simple Graph Convolutional Neural Network (GCNNs) can achieve state-of-the-art results if trained and tuned properly.

Large language models (LLMs) cannot be trusted for economic forecasts during periods covered by their training data. We provide the first systematic evaluation of LLMs' memorization of economic and financial data, including major economic indicators, news headlines, stock returns, and conference calls. Our findings show that LLMs can perfectly recall the exact numerical values of key economic variables from before their knowledge cutoff dates. This recall appears to be randomly distributed across different dates and data types. This selective perfect memory creates a fundamental issue -- when testing forecasting capabilities before their knowledge cutoff dates, we cannot distinguish whether LLMs are forecasting or simply accessing memorized data. Explicit instructions to respect historical data boundaries fail to prevent LLMs from achieving recall-level accuracy in forecasting tasks. Further, LLMs seem exceptional at reconstructing masked entities from minimal contextual clues, suggesting that masking provides inadequate protection against motivated reasoning. Our findings raise concerns about using LLMs to forecast historical data or backtest trading strategies, as their apparent predictive success may merely reflect memorization rather than genuine economic insight. Any application where future knowledge would change LLMs' outputs can be affected by memorization. In contrast, consistent with the absence of data contamination, LLMs cannot recall data after their knowledge cutoff date.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in robotic systems presents unique safety challenges, particularly in unpredictable environments. Although LLMs, leveraging zero-shot learning, enhance human-robot interaction and decision-making capabilities, their inherent probabilistic nature and lack of formal guarantees raise significant concerns for safety-critical applications. Traditional model-based verification approaches often rely on precise system models, which are difficult to obtain for real-world robotic systems and may not be fully trusted due to modeling inaccuracies, unmodeled dynamics, or environmental uncertainties. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a safety assurance framework for LLM-controlled robots based on data-driven reachability analysis, a formal verification technique that ensures all possible system trajectories remain within safe operational limits. Our framework specifically investigates the problem of instructing an LLM to navigate the robot to a specified goal and assesses its ability to generate low-level control actions that successfully guide the robot safely toward that goal. By leveraging historical data to construct reachable sets of states for the robot-LLM system, our approach provides rigorous safety guarantees against unsafe behaviors without relying on explicit analytical models. We validate the framework through experimental case studies in autonomous navigation and task planning, demonstrating its effectiveness in mitigating risks associated with LLM-generated commands. This work advances the integration of formal methods into LLM-based robotics, offering a principled and practical approach to ensuring safety in next-generation autonomous systems.

How areas of land are allocated for different uses, such as forests, urban areas, and agriculture, has a large effect on the terrestrial carbon balance, and therefore climate change. Based on available historical data on land-use changes and a simulation of the associated carbon emissions and removals, a surrogate model can be learned that makes it possible to evaluate the different options available to decision-makers efficiently. An evolutionary search process can then be used to discover effective land-use policies for specific locations. Such a system was built on the Project Resilience platform and evaluated with the Land-Use Harmonization dataset LUH2 and the bookkeeping model BLUE. It generates Pareto fronts that trade off carbon impact and amount of land-use change customized to different locations, thus providing a proof-of-concept tool that is potentially useful for land-use planning.

Commit messages are crucial to software development, allowing developers to track changes and collaborate effectively. Despite their utility, most commit messages lack important information since writing high-quality commit messages is tedious and time-consuming. The active research on commit message generation (CMG) has not yet led to wide adoption in practice. We argue that if we could shift the focus from commit message generation to commit message completion and use previous commit history as additional context, we could significantly improve the quality and the personal nature of the resulting commit messages. In this paper, we propose and evaluate both of these novel ideas. Since the existing datasets lack historical data, we collect and share a novel dataset called CommitChronicle, containing 10.7M commits across 20 programming languages. We use this dataset to evaluate the completion setting and the usefulness of the historical context for state-of-the-art CMG models and GPT-3.5-turbo. Our results show that in some contexts, commit message completion shows better results than generation, and that while in general GPT-3.5-turbo performs worse, it shows potential for long and detailed messages. As for the history, the results show that historical information improves the performance of CMG models in the generation task, and the performance of GPT-3.5-turbo in both generation and completion.

Recommender systems play a central role in numerous real-life applications, yet evaluating their performance remains a significant challenge due to the gap between offline metrics and online behaviors. Given the scarcity and limits (e.g., privacy issues) of real user data, we introduce SimUSER, an agent framework that serves as believable and cost-effective human proxies. SimUSER first identifies self-consistent personas from historical data, enriching user profiles with unique backgrounds and personalities. Then, central to this evaluation are users equipped with persona, memory, perception, and brain modules, engaging in interactions with the recommender system. SimUSER exhibits closer alignment with genuine humans than prior work, both at micro and macro levels. Additionally, we conduct insightful experiments to explore the effects of thumbnails on click rates, the exposure effect, and the impact of reviews on user engagement. Finally, we refine recommender system parameters based on offline A/B test results, resulting in improved user engagement in the real world.

This study evaluates the performance of 41 machine learning models, including 21 classifiers and 20 regressors, in predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading. By examining these models under various market conditions, we highlight their accuracy, robustness, and adaptability to the volatile cryptocurrency market. Our comprehensive analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of each model, providing critical insights for developing effective trading strategies. We employ both machine learning metrics (e.g., Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error) and trading metrics (e.g., Profit and Loss percentage, Sharpe Ratio) to assess model performance. Our evaluation includes backtesting on historical data, forward testing on recent unseen data, and real-world trading scenarios, ensuring the robustness and practical applicability of our models. Key findings demonstrate that certain models, such as Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent, outperform others in terms of profit and risk management. These insights offer valuable guidance for traders and researchers aiming to leverage machine learning for cryptocurrency trading.

The exploration of thermoelectric materials is challenging considering the large materials space, combined with added exponential degrees of freedom coming from doping and the diversity of synthetic pathways. Here we seek to incorporate historical data and update and refine it using experimental feedback by employing error-correction learning (ECL). We thus learn from prior datasets and then adapt the model to differences in synthesis and characterization that are otherwise difficult to parameterize. We then apply this strategy to discovering thermoelectric materials where we prioritize synthesis at temperatures < 300{\deg}C. We document a previously unreported chemical family of thermoelectric materials, PbSe:SnSb, finding that the best candidate in this chemical family, 2 wt% SnSb doped PbSe, exhibits a power factor more than 2x that of PbSe. Our investigations show that our closed-loop experimentation strategy reduces the required number of experiments to find an optimized material by as much as 3x compared to high-throughput searches powered by state-of-the-art machine learning models. We also observe that this improvement is dependent on the accuracy of prior in a manner that exhibits diminishing returns, and after a certain accuracy is reached, it is factors associated with experimental pathways that dictate the trends.

Accurate spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting is crucial in aiding traffic managers in implementing control measures and assisting drivers in selecting optimal travel routes. Traditional deep-learning based methods for traffic flow forecasting typically rely on historical data to train their models, which are then used to make predictions on future data. However, the performance of the trained model usually degrades due to the temporal drift between the historical and future data. To make the model trained on historical data better adapt to future data in a fully online manner, this paper conducts the first study of the online test-time adaptation techniques for spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting problems. To this end, we propose an Adaptive Double Correction by Series Decomposition (ADCSD) method, which first decomposes the output of the trained model into seasonal and trend-cyclical parts and then corrects them by two separate modules during the testing phase using the latest observed data entry by entry. In the proposed ADCSD method, instead of fine-tuning the whole trained model during the testing phase, a lite network is attached after the trained model, and only the lite network is fine-tuned in the testing process each time a data entry is observed. Moreover, to satisfy that different time series variables may have different levels of temporal drift, two adaptive vectors are adopted to provide different weights for different time series variables. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic flow forecasting datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ADCSD method. The code is available at https://github.com/Pengxin-Guo/ADCSD.

Researchers have been using Neural Networks and other related machine-learning techniques to price options since the early 1990s. After three decades of improvements in machine learning techniques, computational processing power, cloud computing, and data availability, this paper is able to provide a comparison of using Google Cloud's AutoML Regressor, TensorFlow Neural Networks, and XGBoost Gradient Boosting Decision Trees for pricing European Options. All three types of models were able to outperform the Black Scholes Model in terms of mean absolute error. These results showcase the potential of using historical data from an option's underlying asset for pricing European options, especially when using machine learning algorithms that learn complex patterns that traditional parametric models do not take into account.

As LLMs become capable of complex tasks, there is growing potential for personalized interactions tailored to the subtle and idiosyncratic preferences of the user. We present a public benchmark, PersonalLLM, focusing on adapting LLMs to provide maximal benefits for a particular user. Departing from existing alignment benchmarks that implicitly assume uniform preferences, we curate open-ended prompts paired with many high-quality answers over which users would be expected to display heterogeneous latent preferences. Instead of persona-prompting LLMs based on high-level attributes (e.g., user's race or response length), which yields homogeneous preferences relative to humans, we develop a method that can simulate a large user base with diverse preferences from a set of pre-trained reward models. Our dataset and generated personalities offer an innovative testbed for developing personalization algorithms that grapple with continual data sparsity--few relevant feedback from the particular user--by leveraging historical data from other (similar) users. We explore basic in-context learning and meta-learning baselines to illustrate the utility of PersonalLLM and highlight the need for future methodological development. Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/namkoong-lab/PersonalLLM

Replay methods have shown to be successful in mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning scenarios despite having limited access to historical data. However, storing historical data is cheap in many real-world applications, yet replaying all historical data would be prohibited due to processing time constraints. In such settings, we propose learning the time to learn for a continual learning system, in which we learn replay schedules over which tasks to replay at different time steps. To demonstrate the importance of learning the time to learn, we first use Monte Carlo tree search to find the proper replay schedule and show that it can outperform fixed scheduling policies in terms of continual learning performance. Moreover, to improve the scheduling efficiency itself, we propose to use reinforcement learning to learn the replay scheduling policies that can generalize to new continual learning scenarios without added computational cost. In our experiments, we show the advantages of learning the time to learn, which brings current continual learning research closer to real-world needs.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have propelled intelligent agents from reactive responses to proactive support. While promising, existing proactive agents either rely exclusively on observations from enclosed environments (e.g., desktop UIs) with direct LLM inference or employ rule-based proactive notifications, leading to suboptimal user intent understanding and limited functionality for proactive service. In this paper, we introduce ContextAgent, the first context-aware proactive agent that incorporates extensive sensory contexts to enhance the proactive capabilities of LLM agents. ContextAgent first extracts multi-dimensional contexts from massive sensory perceptions on wearables (e.g., video and audio) to understand user intentions. ContextAgent then leverages the sensory contexts and the persona contexts from historical data to predict the necessity for proactive services. When proactive assistance is needed, ContextAgent further automatically calls the necessary tools to assist users unobtrusively. To evaluate this new task, we curate ContextAgentBench, the first benchmark for evaluating context-aware proactive LLM agents, covering 1,000 samples across nine daily scenarios and twenty tools. Experiments on ContextAgentBench show that ContextAgent outperforms baselines by achieving up to 8.5% and 6.0% higher accuracy in proactive predictions and tool calling, respectively. We hope our research can inspire the development of more advanced, human-centric, proactive AI assistants.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) endeavors to predict future observations given historical data, playing a crucial role in time series data management systems. With advancements in large language models (LLMs), recent studies employ textual prompt tuning to infuse the knowledge of LLMs into MTSF. However, the deployment of LLMs often suffers from low efficiency during the inference phase. To address this problem, we introduce TimeKD, an efficient MTSF framework that leverages the calibrated language models and privileged knowledge distillation. TimeKD aims to generate high-quality future representations from the proposed cross-modality teacher model and cultivate an effective student model. The cross-modality teacher model adopts calibrated language models (CLMs) with ground truth prompts, motivated by the paradigm of Learning Under Privileged Information (LUPI). In addition, we design a subtractive cross attention (SCA) mechanism to refine these representations. To cultivate an effective student model, we propose an innovative privileged knowledge distillation (PKD) mechanism including correlation and feature distillation. PKD enables the student to replicate the teacher's behavior while minimizing their output discrepancy. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed TimeKD.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn from historical data without requiring (costly) access to the environment. To facilitate offline RL research, we previously introduced NeoRL, which highlighted that datasets from real-world tasks are often conservative and limited. With years of experience applying offline RL to various domains, we have identified additional real-world challenges. These include extremely conservative data distributions produced by deployed control systems, delayed action effects caused by high-latency transitions, external factors arising from the uncontrollable variance of transitions, and global safety constraints that are difficult to evaluate during the decision-making process. These challenges are underrepresented in previous benchmarks but frequently occur in real-world tasks. To address this, we constructed the extended Near Real-World Offline RL Benchmark (NeoRL-2), which consists of 7 datasets from 7 simulated tasks along with their corresponding evaluation simulators. Benchmarking results from state-of-the-art offline RL approaches demonstrate that current methods often struggle to outperform the data-collection behavior policy, highlighting the need for more effective methods. We hope NeoRL-2 will accelerate the development of reinforcement learning algorithms for real-world applications. The benchmark project page is available at https://github.com/polixir/NeoRL2.

This report reviews recent advancements in human motion prediction, reconstruction, and generation. Human motion prediction focuses on forecasting future poses and movements from historical data, addressing challenges like nonlinear dynamics, occlusions, and motion style variations. Reconstruction aims to recover accurate 3D human body movements from visual inputs, often leveraging transformer-based architectures, diffusion models, and physical consistency losses to handle noise and complex poses. Motion generation synthesizes realistic and diverse motions from action labels, textual descriptions, or environmental constraints, with applications in robotics, gaming, and virtual avatars. Additionally, text-to-motion generation and human-object interaction modeling have gained attention, enabling fine-grained and context-aware motion synthesis for augmented reality and robotics. This review highlights key methodologies, datasets, challenges, and future research directions driving progress in these fields.

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and retention campaigns, predicting potential churners stands as a primary objective. In volatile sectors like fantasy sports, unpredictable factors such as international sports events can influence even regular spending habits. Consequently, while transaction history and user-product interaction are valuable in predicting churn, they demand deep domain knowledge and intricate feature engineering. Additionally, feature development for churn prediction systems can be resource-intensive, particularly in production settings serving 200m+ users, where inference pipelines largely focus on feature engineering. This paper conducts an exhaustive study on predicting user churn using historical data. We aim to create a model forecasting customer churn likelihood, facilitating businesses in comprehending attrition trends and formulating effective retention plans. Our approach treats churn prediction as multivariate time series classification, demonstrating that combining user activity and deep neural networks yields remarkable results for churn prediction in complex business-to-customer contexts.

This paper presents a novel framework for automated code generation and debugging, designed to improve accuracy, efficiency, and scalability in software development. The proposed system integrates three core components LangGraph, GLM4 Flash, and ChromaDB within a four step iterative workflow to deliver robust performance and seamless functionality. LangGraph serves as a graph-based library for orchestrating tasks, providing precise control and execution while maintaining a unified state object for dynamic updates and consistency. It supports multi-agent, hierarchical, and sequential processes, making it highly adaptable to complex software engineering workflows. GLM4 Flash, a large language model, leverages its advanced capabilities in natural language understanding, contextual reasoning, and multilingual support to generate accurate code snippets based on user prompts. ChromaDB acts as a vector database for semantic search and contextual memory storage, enabling the identification of patterns and the generation of context-aware bug fixes based on historical data. The system operates through a structured four-step process: (1) Code Generation, which translates natural language descriptions into executable code; (2) Code Execution, which validates the code by identifying runtime errors and inconsistencies; (3) Code Repair, which iteratively refines buggy code using ChromaDB's memory capabilities and LangGraph's state tracking; and (4) Code Update, which ensures the code meets functional and performance requirements through iterative modifications.

Creating AI systems that can interact with environments over long periods, similar to human cognition, has been a longstanding research goal. Recent advancements in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant strides in open-world understanding. However, the challenge of continuous and simultaneous streaming perception, memory, and reasoning remains largely unexplored. Current MLLMs are constrained by their sequence-to-sequence architecture, which limits their ability to process inputs and generate responses simultaneously, akin to being unable to think while perceiving. Furthermore, relying on long contexts to store historical data is impractical for long-term interactions, as retaining all information becomes costly and inefficient. Therefore, rather than relying on a single foundation model to perform all functions, this project draws inspiration from the concept of the Specialized Generalist AI and introduces disentangled streaming perception, reasoning, and memory mechanisms, enabling real-time interaction with streaming video and audio input. The proposed framework InternLM-XComposer2.5-OmniLive (IXC2.5-OL) consists of three key modules: (1) Streaming Perception Module: Processes multimodal information in real-time, storing key details in memory and triggering reasoning in response to user queries. (2) Multi-modal Long Memory Module: Integrates short-term and long-term memory, compressing short-term memories into long-term ones for efficient retrieval and improved accuracy. (3) Reasoning Module: Responds to queries and executes reasoning tasks, coordinating with the perception and memory modules. This project simulates human-like cognition, enabling multimodal large language models to provide continuous and adaptive service over time.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

Neonatal death is still a concerning reality for underdeveloped and even some developed countries. Worldwide data indicate that 26.693 babies out of 1,000 births die, according to Macro Trades. To reduce this number, early prediction of endangered babies is crucial. Such prediction enables the opportunity to take ample care of the child and mother so that early child death can be avoided. In this context, machine learning was used to determine whether a newborn baby is at risk. To train the predictive model, historical data of 1.4 million newborns was used. Machine learning and deep learning techniques such as logical regression, K-nearest neighbor, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), convolutional neural network, and long short-term memory (LSTM) were implemented using the dataset to identify the most accurate model for predicting neonatal mortality. Among the machine learning algorithms, XGBoost and random forest classifier achieved the best accuracy with 94%, while among the deep learning models, LSTM delivered the highest accuracy with 99%. Therefore, using LSTM appears to be the most suitable approach to predict whether precautionary measures for a child are necessary.

This study harnesses the predictive capabilities of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to analyse and predict road traffic accidents in Great Britain. It addresses the challenge of traffic accident forecasting, which is paramount for devising effective preventive measures. We utilised an extensive dataset encompassing reported collisions, casualties, and vehicles involvements from 1926 to 2022, provided by the Department for Transport (DfT). The data underwent stringent processing to rectify missing values and normalise features, ensuring robust LSTM network input.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.

Arabic handwritten text recognition (HTR) is challenging, especially for historical texts, due to diverse writing styles and the intrinsic features of Arabic script. Additionally, Arabic handwriting datasets are smaller compared to English ones, making it difficult to train generalizable Arabic HTR models. To address these challenges, we propose HATFormer, a transformer-based encoder-decoder architecture that builds on a state-of-the-art English HTR model. By leveraging the transformer's attention mechanism, HATFormer captures spatial contextual information to address the intrinsic challenges of Arabic script through differentiating cursive characters, decomposing visual representations, and identifying diacritics. Our customization to historical handwritten Arabic includes an image processor for effective ViT information preprocessing, a text tokenizer for compact Arabic text representation, and a training pipeline that accounts for a limited amount of historic Arabic handwriting data. HATFormer achieves a character error rate (CER) of 8.6% on the largest public historical handwritten Arabic dataset, with a 51% improvement over the best baseline in the literature. HATFormer also attains a comparable CER of 4.2% on the largest private non-historical dataset. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of adapting an English HTR method to a low-resource language with complex, language-specific challenges, contributing to advancements in document digitization, information retrieval, and cultural preservation.

Artificial intelligence (AI), and especially its sub-field of Machine Learning (ML), are impacting the daily lives of everyone with their ubiquitous applications. In recent years, AI researchers and practitioners have introduced principles and guidelines to build systems that make reliable and trustworthy decisions. From a practical perspective, conventional ML systems process historical data to extract the features that are consequently used to train ML models that perform the desired task. However, in practice, a fundamental challenge arises when the system needs to be operationalized and deployed to evolve and operate in real-life environments continuously. To address this challenge, Machine Learning Operations (MLOps) have emerged as a potential recipe for standardizing ML solutions in deployment. Although MLOps demonstrated great success in streamlining ML processes, thoroughly defining the specifications of robust MLOps approaches remains of great interest to researchers and practitioners. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the trustworthiness property of MLOps systems. Specifically, we highlight technical practices to achieve robust MLOps systems. In addition, we survey the existing research approaches that address the robustness aspects of ML systems in production. We also review the tools and software available to build MLOps systems and summarize their support to handle the robustness aspects. Finally, we present the open challenges and propose possible future directions and opportunities within this emerging field. The aim of this paper is to provide researchers and practitioners working on practical AI applications with a comprehensive view to adopt robust ML solutions in production environments.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

Large Language Models (LLM) have made significant advances in the recent past becoming more mainstream in Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled human-facing applications. However, LLMs often generate stereotypical output inherited from historical data, amplifying societal biases and raising ethical concerns. This work introduces i) the Multi-Grain Stereotype Dataset, which includes 52,751 instances of gender, race, profession and religion stereotypic text and ii) a novel stereotype classifier for English text. We design several experiments to rigorously test the proposed model trained on the novel dataset. Our experiments show that training the model in a multi-class setting can outperform the one-vs-all binary counterpart. Consistent feature importance signals from different eXplainable AI tools demonstrate that the new model exploits relevant text features. We utilise the newly created model to assess the stereotypic behaviour of the popular GPT family of models and observe the reduction of bias over time. In summary, our work establishes a robust and practical framework for auditing and evaluating the stereotypic bias in LLM.

The timely identification of socio-economic sectors vulnerable to a disease outbreak presents an important challenge to the civic authorities and healthcare workers interested in outbreak mitigation measures. This problem was traditionally solved by studying the aberrances in small-scale healthcare data. In this paper, we leverage data driven models to determine the relationship between the trends of World Development Indicators and occurrence of disease outbreaks using worldwide historical data from 2000-2019, and treat it as a classic supervised classification problem. CART based feature selection was employed in an unorthodox fashion to determine the covariates getting affected by the disease outbreak, thus giving the most vulnerable sectors. The result involves a comprehensive analysis of different classification algorithms and is indicative of the relationship between the disease outbreak occurrence and the magnitudes of various development indicators.

Dictionary learning is a widely used unsupervised learning method in signal processing and machine learning. Most existing works of dictionary learning are in an offline manner. There are mainly two offline ways for dictionary learning. One is to do an alternative optimization of both the dictionary and the sparse code; the other way is to optimize the dictionary by restricting it over the orthogonal group. The latter one is called orthogonal dictionary learning which has a lower complexity implementation, hence, it is more favorable for lowcost devices. However, existing schemes on orthogonal dictionary learning only work with batch data and can not be implemented online, which is not applicable for real-time applications. This paper proposes a novel online orthogonal dictionary scheme to dynamically learn the dictionary from streaming data without storing the historical data. The proposed scheme includes a novel problem formulation and an efficient online algorithm design with convergence analysis. In the problem formulation, we relax the orthogonal constraint to enable an efficient online algorithm. In the algorithm design, we propose a new Frank-Wolfe-based online algorithm with a convergence rate of O(ln t/t^(1/4)). The convergence rate in terms of key system parameters is also derived. Experiments with synthetic data and real-world sensor readings demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed online orthogonal dictionary learning scheme.

We unveil that internal representations in large language models (LLMs) serve as reliable proxies of learned knowledge, and propose RECALL, a novel representation-aware model merging framework for continual learning without access to historical data. RECALL computes inter-model similarity from layer-wise hidden representations over clustered typical samples, and performs adaptive, hierarchical parameter fusion to align knowledge across models. This design enables the preservation of domain-general features in shallow layers while allowing task-specific adaptation in deeper layers. Unlike prior methods that require task labels or incur performance trade-offs, RECALL achieves seamless multi-domain integration and strong resistance to catastrophic forgetting. Extensive experiments across five NLP tasks and multiple continual learning scenarios show that RECALL outperforms baselines in both knowledge retention and generalization, providing a scalable and data-free solution for evolving LLMs.

Comprehensively understanding and accurately predicting the performance of large language models across diverse downstream tasks has emerged as a pivotal challenge in NLP research. The pioneering scaling law on downstream works demonstrated intrinsic similarities within model families and utilized such similarities for performance prediction. However, they tend to overlook the similarities between model families and only consider design factors listed in the original scaling law. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel framework, Collaborative Performance Prediction (CPP), which significantly enhances prediction accuracy by leveraging the historical performance of various models on downstream tasks and other design factors for both model and task. We also collect a collaborative data sourced from online platforms containing both historical performance and additional design factors. With the support of the collaborative data, CPP not only surpasses traditional scaling laws in predicting the performance of scaled LLMs but also facilitates a detailed analysis of factor importance, an area previously overlooked.

Traditional POI recommendation systems often lack transparency, interpretability, and scrutability due to their reliance on dense vector-based user embeddings. Furthermore, the cold-start problem -- where systems have insufficient data for new users -- limits their ability to generate accurate recommendations. Existing methods often address this by leveraging similar trajectories from other users, but this approach can be computationally expensive and increases the context length for LLM-based methods, making them difficult to scale. To address these limitations, we propose a method that generates natural language (NL) user profiles from large-scale, location-based social network (LBSN) check-ins, utilizing robust personality assessments and behavioral theories. These NL profiles capture user preferences, routines, and behaviors, improving POI prediction accuracy while offering enhanced transparency. By incorporating NL profiles as system prompts to LLMs, our approach reduces reliance on extensive historical data, while remaining flexible, easily updated, and computationally efficient. Our method is not only competitive with other LLM-based and complex agentic frameworks but is also more scalable for real-world scenarios and on-device POI recommendations. Results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms baseline methods, offering a more interpretable and resource-efficient solution for POI recommendation systems. Our source code is available at: https://github.com/w11wo/GenUP.

This work proposes a new data-driven model devised to integrate process knowledge into its structure to increase the human-machine synergy in the process industry. The proposed Contextual Mixture of Experts (cMoE) explicitly uses process knowledge along the model learning stage to mold the historical data to represent operators' context related to the process through possibility distributions. This model was evaluated in two real case studies for quality prediction, including a sulfur recovery unit and a polymerization process. The contextual mixture of experts was employed to represent different contexts in both experiments. The results indicate that integrating process knowledge has increased predictive performance while improving interpretability by providing insights into the variables affecting the process's different regimes.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

Personalizing Large Language Models (LLMs) has become a critical step in facilitating their widespread application to enhance individual life experiences. In pursuit of personalization, distilling key preference information from an individual's historical data as instructional preference context to customize LLM generation has emerged as a promising direction. However, these methods face a fundamental limitation by overlooking the inter-user comparative analysis, which is essential for identifying the inter-user differences that truly shape preferences. To address this limitation, we propose Difference-aware Personalization Learning (DPL), a novel approach that emphasizes extracting inter-user differences to enhance LLM personalization. DPL strategically selects representative users for comparison and establishes a structured standard to extract meaningful, task-relevant differences for customizing LLM generation. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that DPL significantly enhances LLM personalization. We release our code at https://github.com/SnowCharmQ/DPL.

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showing efficiency during volatile periods. The methodology was implemented on the QuantConnect platform, which was chosen for its robust framework and experimental reproducibility. The system, which predicts future price movements, includes a three-year warm-up to ensure proper algorithm function. It targets highly liquid, large-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also considering broker payments. The dual-model alpha system utilizes log returns to select the optimal state based on the historical performance. It combines state predictions with neural network outputs, which are based on historical data, to generate trading signals. This study examined the architecture of the trading system, data pre-processing, training, and performance. The full code and backtesting data are available under the QuantConnect terms.

In recent years, large-scale pre-trained diffusion models have demonstrated their outstanding capabilities in image and video generation tasks. However, existing models tend to produce visual objects commonly found in the training dataset, which diverges from user input prompts. The underlying reason behind the inaccurate generated results lies in the model's difficulty in sampling from specific intervals of the initial noise distribution corresponding to the prompt. Moreover, it is challenging to directly optimize the initial distribution, given that the diffusion process involves multiple denoising steps. In this paper, we introduce a Fine-tuning Initial Noise Distribution (FIND) framework with policy optimization, which unleashes the powerful potential of pre-trained diffusion networks by directly optimizing the initial distribution to align the generated contents with user-input prompts. To this end, we first reformulate the diffusion denoising procedure as a one-step Markov decision process and employ policy optimization to directly optimize the initial distribution. In addition, a dynamic reward calibration module is proposed to ensure training stability during optimization. Furthermore, we introduce a ratio clipping algorithm to utilize historical data for network training and prevent the optimized distribution from deviating too far from the original policy to restrain excessive optimization magnitudes. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in both text-to-image and text-to-video tasks, surpassing SOTA methods in achieving consistency between prompts and the generated content. Our method achieves 10 times faster than the SOTA approach. Our homepage is available at https://github.com/vpx-ecnu/FIND-website.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Learning effective reinforcement learning (RL) policies to solve real-world complex tasks can be quite challenging without a high-fidelity simulation environment. In most cases, we are only given imperfect simulators with simplified dynamics, which inevitably lead to severe sim-to-real gaps in RL policy learning. The recently emerged field of offline RL provides another possibility to learn policies directly from pre-collected historical data. However, to achieve reasonable performance, existing offline RL algorithms need impractically large offline data with sufficient state-action space coverage for training. This brings up a new question: is it possible to combine learning from limited real data in offline RL and unrestricted exploration through imperfect simulators in online RL to address the drawbacks of both approaches? In this study, we propose the Dynamics-Aware Hybrid Offline-and-Online Reinforcement Learning (H2O) framework to provide an affirmative answer to this question. H2O introduces a dynamics-aware policy evaluation scheme, which adaptively penalizes the Q function learning on simulated state-action pairs with large dynamics gaps, while also simultaneously allowing learning from a fixed real-world dataset. Through extensive simulation and real-world tasks, as well as theoretical analysis, we demonstrate the superior performance of H2O against other cross-domain online and offline RL algorithms. H2O provides a brand new hybrid offline-and-online RL paradigm, which can potentially shed light on future RL algorithm design for solving practical real-world tasks.

The next Point of Interest (POI) recommendation task is to predict users' immediate next POI visit given their historical data. Location-Based Social Network (LBSN) data, which is often used for the next POI recommendation task, comes with challenges. One frequently disregarded challenge is how to effectively use the abundant contextual information present in LBSN data. Previous methods are limited by their numerical nature and fail to address this challenge. In this paper, we propose a framework that uses pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs) to tackle this challenge. Our framework allows us to preserve heterogeneous LBSN data in its original format, hence avoiding the loss of contextual information. Furthermore, our framework is capable of comprehending the inherent meaning of contextual information due to the inclusion of commonsense knowledge. In experiments, we test our framework on three real-world LBSN datasets. Our results show that the proposed framework outperforms the state-of-the-art models in all three datasets. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework in using contextual information as well as alleviating the commonly encountered cold-start and short trajectory problems.

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) which are a branch of artificial intelligence, have shown their high value in lots of applications and are used as a suitable forecasting method. Therefore, this study aims at forecasting imports in OECD member selected countries and Iran for 20 seasons from 2021 to 2025 by means of ANN. Data related to the imports of such countries collected over 50 years from 1970 to 2019 from valid resources including World Bank, WTO, IFM,the data turned into seasonal data to increase the number of collected data for better performance and high accuracy of the network by using Diz formula that there were totally 200 data related to imports. This study has used LSTM to analyse data in Pycharm. 75% of data considered as training data and 25% considered as test data and the results of the analysis were forecasted with 99% accuracy which revealed the validity and reliability of the output. Since the imports is consumption function and since the consumption is influenced during Covid-19 Pandemic, so it is time-consuming to correct and improve it to be influential on the imports, thus the imports in the years after Covid-19 Pandemic has had a fluctuating trend.

The development of artificial intelligence demands that models incrementally update knowledge by Continual Learning (CL) to adapt to open-world environments. To meet privacy and security requirements, Continual Unlearning (CU) emerges as an important problem, aiming to sequentially forget particular knowledge acquired during the CL phase. However, existing unlearning methods primarily focus on single-shot joint forgetting and face significant limitations when applied to CU. First, most existing methods require access to the retained dataset for re-training or fine-tuning, violating the inherent constraint in CL that historical data cannot be revisited. Second, these methods often suffer from a poor trade-off between system efficiency and model fidelity, making them vulnerable to being overwhelmed or degraded by adversaries through deliberately frequent requests. In this paper, we identify that the limitations of existing unlearning methods stem fundamentally from their reliance on gradient-based updates. To bridge the research gap at its root, we propose a novel gradient-free method for CU, named Analytic Continual Unlearning (ACU), for efficient and exact forgetting with historical data privacy preservation. In response to each unlearning request, our ACU recursively derives an analytical (i.e., closed-form) solution in an interpretable manner using the least squares method. Theoretical and experimental evaluations validate the superiority of our ACU on unlearning effectiveness, model fidelity, and system efficiency.

Time series data is a prevalent form of data found in various fields. It consists of a series of measurements taken over time. Forecasting is a crucial application of time series models, where future values are predicted based on historical data. Accurate forecasting is essential for making well-informed decisions across industries. When it comes to electric vehicles (EVs), precise predictions play a key role in planning infrastructure development, load balancing, and energy management. This study introduces a BI-LSTM embedding denoising autoencoder model (BDM) designed to address time series problems, focusing on short-term EV charging load prediction. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated by comparing it with benchmark models like Transformer, CNN, RNN, LSTM, and GRU. Based on the results of the study, the proposed model outperforms the benchmark models in four of the five-time steps, demonstrating its effectiveness for time series forecasting. This research makes a significant contribution to enhancing time series forecasting, thereby improving decision-making processes.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

Significant progress has been made in automated problem-solving using societies of agents powered by large language models (LLMs). In finance, efforts have largely focused on single-agent systems handling specific tasks or multi-agent frameworks independently gathering data. However, the multi-agent systems' potential to replicate real-world trading firms' collaborative dynamics remains underexplored. TradingAgents proposes a novel stock trading framework inspired by trading firms, featuring LLM-powered agents in specialized roles such as fundamental analysts, sentiment analysts, technical analysts, and traders with varied risk profiles. The framework includes Bull and Bear researcher agents assessing market conditions, a risk management team monitoring exposure, and traders synthesizing insights from debates and historical data to make informed decisions. By simulating a dynamic, collaborative trading environment, this framework aims to improve trading performance. Detailed architecture and extensive experiments reveal its superiority over baseline models, with notable improvements in cumulative returns, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, highlighting the potential of multi-agent LLM frameworks in financial trading. TradingAgents is available at https://github.com/TauricResearch/TradingAgents.

Agent-based modeling (ABM) seeks to understand the behavior of complex systems by simulating a collection of agents that act and interact within an environment. Their practical utility requires capturing realistic environment dynamics and adaptive agent behavior while efficiently simulating million-size populations. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to enhance ABMs by using LLMs as agents with further potential to capture adaptive behavior. However, the computational infeasibility of using LLMs for large populations has hindered their widespread adoption. In this paper, we introduce AgentTorch -- a framework that scales ABMs to millions of agents while capturing high-resolution agent behavior using LLMs. We benchmark the utility of LLMs as ABM agents, exploring the trade-off between simulation scale and individual agency. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, we demonstrate how AgentTorch can simulate 8.4 million agents representing New York City, capturing the impact of isolation and employment behavior on health and economic outcomes. We compare the performance of different agent architectures based on heuristic and LLM agents in predicting disease waves and unemployment rates. Furthermore, we showcase AgentTorch's capabilities for retrospective, counterfactual, and prospective analyses, highlighting how adaptive agent behavior can help overcome the limitations of historical data in policy design. AgentTorch is an open-source project actively being used for policy-making and scientific discovery around the world. The framework is available here: github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch.

Financial trading is a crucial component of the markets, informed by a multimodal information landscape encompassing news, prices, and Kline charts, and encompasses diverse tasks such as quantitative trading and high-frequency trading with various assets. While advanced AI techniques like deep learning and reinforcement learning are extensively utilized in finance, their application in financial trading tasks often faces challenges due to inadequate handling of multimodal data and limited generalizability across various tasks. To address these challenges, we present FinAgent, a multimodal foundational agent with tool augmentation for financial trading. FinAgent's market intelligence module processes a diverse range of data-numerical, textual, and visual-to accurately analyze the financial market. Its unique dual-level reflection module not only enables rapid adaptation to market dynamics but also incorporates a diversified memory retrieval system, enhancing the agent's ability to learn from historical data and improve decision-making processes. The agent's emphasis on reasoning for actions fosters trust in its financial decisions. Moreover, FinAgent integrates established trading strategies and expert insights, ensuring that its trading approaches are both data-driven and rooted in sound financial principles. With comprehensive experiments on 6 financial datasets, including stocks and Crypto, FinAgent significantly outperforms 9 state-of-the-art baselines in terms of 6 financial metrics with over 36% average improvement on profit. Specifically, a 92.27% return (a 84.39% relative improvement) is achieved on one dataset. Notably, FinAgent is the first advanced multimodal foundation agent designed for financial trading tasks.

In the multiple unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)- assisted downlink communication, it is challenging for UAV base stations (UAV BSs) to realize trajectory design and resource assignment in unknown environments. The cooperation and competition between UAV BSs in the communication network leads to a Markov game problem. Multi-agent reinforcement learning is a significant solution for the above decision-making. However, there are still many common issues, such as the instability of the system and low utilization of historical data, that limit its application. In this paper, a novel graph-attention multi-agent trust region (GA-MATR) reinforcement learning framework is proposed to solve the multi-UAV assisted communication problem. Graph recurrent network is introduced to process and analyze complex topology of the communication network, so as to extract useful information and patterns from observational information. The attention mechanism provides additional weighting for conveyed information, so that the critic network can accurately evaluate the value of behavior for UAV BSs. This provides more reliable feedback signals and helps the actor network update the strategy more effectively. Ablation simulations indicate that the proposed approach attains improved convergence over the baselines. UAV BSs learn the optimal communication strategies to achieve their maximum cumulative rewards. Additionally, multi-agent trust region method with monotonic convergence provides an estimated Nash equilibrium for the multi-UAV assisted communication Markov game.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant potential in enhancing recommender systems. However, addressing the cold-start recommendation problem, where users lack historical data, remains a considerable challenge. In this paper, we introduce KALM4Rec (Keyword-driven Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models for Cold-start User Recommendations), a novel framework specifically designed to tackle this problem by requiring only a few input keywords from users in a practical scenario of cold-start user restaurant recommendations. KALM4Rec operates in two main stages: candidates retrieval and LLM-based candidates re-ranking. In the first stage, keyword-driven retrieval models are used to identify potential candidates, addressing LLMs' limitations in processing extensive tokens and reducing the risk of generating misleading information. In the second stage, we employ LLMs with various prompting strategies, including zero-shot and few-shot techniques, to re-rank these candidates by integrating multiple examples directly into the LLM prompts. Our evaluation, using a Yelp restaurant dataset with user reviews from three English-speaking cities, shows that our proposed framework significantly improves recommendation quality. Specifically, the integration of in-context instructions with LLMs for re-ranking markedly enhances the performance of the cold-start user recommender system.

Model-based methods have recently shown promising for offline reinforcement learning (RL), aiming to learn good policies from historical data without interacting with the environment. Previous model-based offline RL methods learn fully connected nets as world-models that map the states and actions to the next-step states. However, it is sensible that a world-model should adhere to the underlying causal effect such that it will support learning an effective policy generalizing well in unseen states. In this paper, We first provide theoretical results that causal world-models can outperform plain world-models for offline RL by incorporating the causal structure into the generalization error bound. We then propose a practical algorithm, oFfline mOdel-based reinforcement learning with CaUsal Structure (FOCUS), to illustrate the feasibility of learning and leveraging causal structure in offline RL. Experimental results on two benchmarks show that FOCUS reconstructs the underlying causal structure accurately and robustly. Consequently, it performs better than the plain model-based offline RL algorithms and other causal model-based RL algorithms.

Model compression methods can reduce model complexity on the premise of maintaining acceptable performance, and thus promote the application of deep neural networks under resource constrained environments. Despite their great success, the selection of suitable compression methods and design of details of the compression scheme are difficult, requiring lots of domain knowledge as support, which is not friendly to non-expert users. To make more users easily access to the model compression scheme that best meet their needs, in this paper, we propose AutoMC, an effective automatic tool for model compression. AutoMC builds the domain knowledge on model compression to deeply understand the characteristics and advantages of each compression method under different settings. In addition, it presents a progressive search strategy to efficiently explore pareto optimal compression scheme according to the learned prior knowledge combined with the historical evaluation information. Extensive experimental results show that AutoMC can provide satisfying compression schemes within short time, demonstrating the effectiveness of AutoMC.

Understanding how words change their meanings over time is key to models of language and cultural evolution, but historical data on meaning is scarce, making theories hard to develop and test. Word embeddings show promise as a diachronic tool, but have not been carefully evaluated. We develop a robust methodology for quantifying semantic change by evaluating word embeddings (PPMI, SVD, word2vec) against known historical changes. We then use this methodology to reveal statistical laws of semantic evolution. Using six historical corpora spanning four languages and two centuries, we propose two quantitative laws of semantic change: (i) the law of conformity---the rate of semantic change scales with an inverse power-law of word frequency; (ii) the law of innovation---independent of frequency, words that are more polysemous have higher rates of semantic change.

Frontier AI systems, including large language models (LLMs), hold increasing influence over the epistemology of human users. Such influence can reinforce prevailing societal values, potentially contributing to the lock-in of misguided moral beliefs and, consequently, the perpetuation of problematic moral practices on a broad scale. We introduce progress alignment as a technical solution to mitigate this imminent risk. Progress alignment algorithms learn to emulate the mechanics of human moral progress, thereby addressing the susceptibility of existing alignment methods to contemporary moral blindspots. To empower research in progress alignment, we introduce ProgressGym, an experimental framework allowing the learning of moral progress mechanics from history, in order to facilitate future progress in real-world moral decisions. Leveraging 9 centuries of historical text and 18 historical LLMs, ProgressGym enables codification of real-world progress alignment challenges into concrete benchmarks. Specifically, we introduce three core challenges: tracking evolving values (PG-Follow), preemptively anticipating moral progress (PG-Predict), and regulating the feedback loop between human and AI value shifts (PG-Coevolve). Alignment methods without a temporal dimension are inapplicable to these tasks. In response, we present lifelong and extrapolative algorithms as baseline methods of progress alignment, and build an open leaderboard soliciting novel algorithms and challenges. The framework and the leaderboard are available at https://github.com/PKU-Alignment/ProgressGym and https://huggingface.co/spaces/PKU-Alignment/ProgressGym-LeaderBoard respectively.

Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal propositions in the literature demonstrating accurate modeling of the predictive systems that can enable us to predict stock prices with a very high level of accuracy. In this paper, we present a suite of deep learning-based regression models that yields a very high level of accuracy in stock price prediction. To build our predictive models, we use the historical stock price data of a well-known company listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India during the period December 31, 2012 to January 9, 2015. The stock prices are recorded at five minutes intervals of time during each working day in a week. Using these extremely granular stock price data, we build four convolutional neural network (CNN) and five long- and short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning models for accurate forecasting of the future stock prices. We provide detailed results on the forecasting accuracies of all our proposed models based on their execution time and their root mean square error (RMSE) values.

In reinforcement learning, agents collect state information and rewards through environmental interactions, essential for policy refinement. This process is notably time-consuming, especially in complex robotic simulations and real-world applications. Traditional algorithms usually re-engage with the environment after processing a single batch of samples, thereby failing to fully capitalize on historical data. However, frequently observed states, with reliable value estimates, require minimal updates; in contrast, rare observed states necessitate more intensive updates for achieving accurate value estimations. To address uneven sample utilization, we propose Novelty-guided Sample Reuse (NSR). NSR provides extra updates for infrequent, novel states and skips additional updates for frequent states, maximizing sample use before interacting with the environment again. Our experiments show that NSR improves the convergence rate and success rate of algorithms without significantly increasing time consumption. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ppksigs/NSR-DDPG-HER.

Policy-based reinforcement learning algorithms are widely used in various fields. Among them, mainstream policy optimization algorithms such as TRPO and PPO introduce importance sampling into policy iteration, which allows the reuse of historical data. However, this can also lead to a high variance of the surrogate objective and indirectly affects the stability and convergence of the algorithm. In this paper, we first derived an upper bound of the surrogate objective variance, which can grow quadratically with the increase of the surrogate objective. Next, we proposed the dropout technique to avoid the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance caused by importance sampling. Then, we introduced a general reinforcement learning framework applicable to mainstream policy optimization methods, and applied the dropout technique to the PPO algorithm to obtain the D-PPO variant. Finally, we conduct comparative experiments between D-PPO and PPO algorithms in the Atari 2600 environment, and the results show that D-PPO achieved significant performance improvements compared to PPO, and effectively limited the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance during training.

Computational historical linguistics seeks to systematically understand processes of sound change, including during periods at which little to no formal recording of language is attested. At the same time, few computational resources exist which deeply explore phonological and morphological connections between proto-languages and their descendants. This is particularly true for the family of Italic languages. To assist historical linguists in the study of Italic sound change, we introduce the Proto-Italic to Latin (PILA) dataset, which consists of roughly 3,000 pairs of forms from Proto-Italic and Latin. We provide a detailed description of how our dataset was created and organized. Then, we exhibit PILA's value in two ways. First, we present baseline results for PILA on a pair of traditional computational historical linguistics tasks. Second, we demonstrate PILA's capability for enhancing other historical-linguistic datasets through a dataset compatibility study.

Many historical map sheets are publicly available for studies that require long-term historical geographic data. The cartographic design of these maps includes a combination of map symbols and text labels. Automatically reading text labels from map images could greatly speed up the map interpretation and helps generate rich metadata describing the map content. Many text detection algorithms have been proposed to locate text regions in map images automatically, but most of the algorithms are trained on out-ofdomain datasets (e.g., scenic images). Training data determines the quality of machine learning models, and manually annotating text regions in map images is labor-extensive and time-consuming. On the other hand, existing geographic data sources, such as Open- StreetMap (OSM), contain machine-readable map layers, which allow us to separate out the text layer and obtain text label annotations easily. However, the cartographic styles between OSM map tiles and historical maps are significantly different. This paper proposes a method to automatically generate an unlimited amount of annotated historical map images for training text detection models. We use a style transfer model to convert contemporary map images into historical style and place text labels upon them. We show that the state-of-the-art text detection models (e.g., PSENet) can benefit from the synthetic historical maps and achieve significant improvement for historical map text detection.

In this paper, we present a pipeline for image extraction from historical documents using foundation models, and evaluate text-image prompts and their effectiveness on humanities datasets of varying levels of complexity. The motivation for this approach stems from the high interest of historians in visual elements printed alongside historical texts on the one hand, and from the relative lack of well-annotated datasets within the humanities when compared to other domains. We propose a sequential approach that relies on GroundDINO and Meta's Segment-Anything-Model (SAM) to retrieve a significant portion of visual data from historical documents that can then be used for downstream development tasks and dataset creation, as well as evaluate the effect of different linguistic prompts on the resulting detections.

As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in a lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize energy infrastructure for a European energy system designed for net-zero CO_2 emissions in 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the capacity layouts and simulate their operation in every weather year, to evaluate resource adequacy and CO_2 emissions abatement. We show that interannual weather variability causes variation of pm10\% in total system cost. The most expensive capacity layout obtains the lowest net CO_2 emissions but not the highest resource adequacy. Instead, capacity layouts designed with years including compound weather events result in a more robust and cost-effective design. Deploying CO_2-emitting backup generation is a cost-effective robustness measure, which only increase CO_2 emissions marginally as the average CO_2 emissions remain less than 1\% of 1990 levels. Our findings highlight how extreme weather years drive investments in robustness measures, making them compatible with all weather conditions within six decades of historical weather data.

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remains an open challenge. Prior research has often framed confidence as a problem of eliciting a model's "self-knowledge", i.e., the ability of an LLM to judge whether its own answers are correct; this approach implicitly assumes that there is some privileged information about the answer's correctness that is accessible to the model itself. However, our experiments reveal that an LLM attempting to predict the correctness of its own outputs generally performs no better than an unrelated LLM. Moreover, we hypothesize that a key factor in building a "Correctness Model" (CM) is exposure to a target model's historical predictions. We propose multiple methods to inject this historical correctness information, creating a Generalized Correctness Model (GCM). We first show that GCMs can be trained on the correctness data from many LLMs and learn patterns for correctness prediction applicable across datasets and models. We then use CMs as a lens for studying the source of correctness prediction ability and its generalization, systematically controlling their training data and finding that answer phrasing is a strong predictor for correctness. We further explore alternative methods of injecting history without training an LLM, finding that including history as in-context examples can help improve correctness prediction, and post-hoc calibration can provide complementary reductions in calibration error. We evaluate GCMs based on Qwen3-8B across 5 model families and the MMLU and TriviaQA datasets, as well as on a downstream selective prediction task, finding that reliable LLM confidence estimation is a generalizable and model-agnostic skill learned by systematically encoding correctness history rather than a model-specific skill reliant on self-introspection.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown great promise in medical applications, particularly in visual question answering (MedVQA) and diagnosis from medical images. However, existing datasets and models often fail to consider critical aspects of medical diagnostics, such as the integration of historical records and the analysis of disease progression over time. In this paper, we introduce MMXU (Multimodal and MultiX-ray Understanding), a novel dataset for MedVQA that focuses on identifying changes in specific regions between two patient visits. Unlike previous datasets that primarily address single-image questions, MMXU enables multi-image questions, incorporating both current and historical patient data. We demonstrate the limitations of current LVLMs in identifying disease progression on MMXU-test, even those that perform well on traditional benchmarks. To address this, we propose a MedRecord-Augmented Generation (MAG) approach, incorporating both global and regional historical records. Our experiments show that integrating historical records significantly enhances diagnostic accuracy by at least 20\%, bridging the gap between current LVLMs and human expert performance. Additionally, we fine-tune models with MAG on MMXU-dev, which demonstrates notable improvements. We hope this work could illuminate the avenue of advancing the use of LVLMs in medical diagnostics by emphasizing the importance of historical context in interpreting medical images. Our dataset is released at https://github.com/linjiemu/MMXU{https://github.com/linjiemu/MMXU}.

This paper demonstrates how to use generative models trained for image synthesis as tools for visual data mining. Our insight is that since contemporary generative models learn an accurate representation of their training data, we can use them to summarize the data by mining for visual patterns. Concretely, we show that after finetuning conditional diffusion models to synthesize images from a specific dataset, we can use these models to define a typicality measure on that dataset. This measure assesses how typical visual elements are for different data labels, such as geographic location, time stamps, semantic labels, or even the presence of a disease. This analysis-by-synthesis approach to data mining has two key advantages. First, it scales much better than traditional correspondence-based approaches since it does not require explicitly comparing all pairs of visual elements. Second, while most previous works on visual data mining focus on a single dataset, our approach works on diverse datasets in terms of content and scale, including a historical car dataset, a historical face dataset, a large worldwide street-view dataset, and an even larger scene dataset. Furthermore, our approach allows for translating visual elements across class labels and analyzing consistent changes.

A significant number of traffic crashes are secondary crashes that occur because of an earlier incident on the road. Thus, early detection of traffic incidents is crucial for road users from safety perspectives with a potential to reduce the risk of secondary crashes. The wide availability of GPS devices now-a-days gives an opportunity of tracking and recording vehicle trajectories. The objective of this study is to use vehicle trajectory data for advance real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways using machine learning-based algorithms. The study uses three days of unevenly sequenced vehicle trajectory data and traffic incident data on I-10, one of the most crash-prone highways in Louisiana. Vehicle trajectories are converted to trajectories based on virtual detector locations to maintain spatial uniformity as well as to generate historical traffic data for machine learning algorithms. Trips matched with traffic incidents on the way are separated and along with other trips with similar spatial attributes are used to build a database for modeling. Multiple machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boost, and Artificial Neural Network models are used to detect a trajectory that is likely to face an incident in the downstream road section. Results suggest that the Random Forest model achieves the best performance for predicting an incident with reasonable recall value and discrimination capability.

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Sim-to-real transfer remains a significant challenge in robotics due to the discrepancies between simulated and real-world dynamics. Traditional methods like Domain Randomization often fail to capture fine-grained dynamics, limiting their effectiveness for precise control tasks. In this work, we propose a novel approach that dynamically adjusts simulation environment parameters online using in-context learning. By leveraging past interaction histories as context, our method adapts the simulation environment dynamics to real-world dynamics without requiring gradient updates, resulting in faster and more accurate alignment between simulated and real-world performance. We validate our approach across two tasks: object scooping and table air hockey. In the sim-to-sim evaluations, our method significantly outperforms the baselines on environment parameter estimation by 80% and 42% in the object scooping and table air hockey setups, respectively. Furthermore, our method achieves at least 70% success rate in sim-to-real transfer on object scooping across three different objects. By incorporating historical interaction data, our approach delivers efficient and smooth system identification, advancing the deployment of robots in dynamic real-world scenarios. Demos are available on our project page: https://sim2real-capture.github.io/

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

Video multi-target segmentation remains a major challenge in long sequences, mainly due to the inherent limitations of existing architectures in capturing global temporal dependencies. We introduce WISE-TTT, a synergistic architecture integrating Test-Time Training (TTT) mechanisms with the Transformer architecture through co-design. The TTT layer systematically compresses historical temporal data to generate hidden states containing worldwide information(Lossless memory to maintain long contextual integrity), while achieving multi-stage contextual aggregation through splicing. Crucially, our framework provides the first empirical validation that implementing worldwide information across multiple network layers is essential for optimal dependency utilization.Ablation studies show TTT modules at high-level features boost global modeling. This translates to 3.1% accuracy improvement(J&F metric) on Davis2017 long-term benchmarks -- the first proof of hierarchical context superiority in video segmentation. We provide the first systematic evidence that worldwide information critically impacts segmentation performance.

In this study, a novel machine learning approach was used to classify three types of synoptic weather events in Taiwan area from 2001 to 2010. We used reanalysis data with three machine learning algorithms to recognize weather systems and evaluated their performance. Overall, the classifiers successfully identified 52-83% of weather events (hit rate), which is higher than the performance of traditional objective methods. The results showed that the machine learning approach gave low false alarm rate in general, while the support vector machine (SVM) with more principal components of reanalysis data had higher hit rate on all tested weather events. The sensitivity tests of grid data resolution indicated that the differences between the high- and low-resolution datasets are limited, which implied that the proposed method can achieve reasonable performance in weather forecasting with minimal resources. By identifying daily weather systems in historical reanalysis data, this method can be used to study long-term weather changes, to monitor climatological-scale variations, and to provide a better estimate of climate projections. Furthermore, this method can also serve as an alternative to model output statistics and potentially be used for synoptic weather forecasting.

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

Predicting stock market movements has always been of great interest to investors and an active area of research. Research has proven that popularity of products is highly influenced by what people talk about. Social media like Twitter, Reddit have become hotspots of such influences. This paper investigates the impact of social media posts on close price prediction of stocks using Twitter and Reddit posts. Our objective is to integrate sentiment of social media data with historical stock data and study its effect on closing prices using time series models. We carried out rigorous experiments and deep analysis using multiple deep learning based models on different datasets to study the influence of posts by executives and general people on the close price. Experimental results on multiple stocks (Apple and Tesla) and decentralised currencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) consistently show improvements in prediction on including social media data and greater improvements on including executive posts.

When solving decision-making tasks, humans typically depend on information from two key sources: (1) Historical policy data, which provides interaction replay from the environment, and (2) Analytical insights in natural language form, exposing the invaluable thought process or strategic considerations. Despite this, the majority of preceding research focuses on only one source: they either use historical replay exclusively to directly learn policy or value functions, or engaged in language model training utilizing mere language corpus. In this paper, we argue that a powerful autonomous agent should cover both sources. Thus, we propose ChessGPT, a GPT model bridging policy learning and language modeling by integrating data from these two sources in Chess games. Specifically, we build a large-scale game and language dataset related to chess. Leveraging the dataset, we showcase two model examples ChessCLIP and ChessGPT, integrating policy learning and language modeling. Finally, we propose a full evaluation framework for evaluating language model's chess ability. Experimental results validate our model and dataset's effectiveness. We open source our code, model, and dataset at https://github.com/waterhorse1/ChessGPT.

Maritime transportation is paramount in achieving global economic growth, entailing concurrent ecological obligations in sustainability and safeguarding endangered marine species, most notably preserving large whale populations. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, allowing enhanced traffic monitoring. This study explores using AIS data to prevent vessel-to-whale collisions by forecasting long-term vessel trajectories from engineered AIS data sequences. For such a task, we have developed an encoder-decoder model architecture using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. We feed the model with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data that refer to each trajectory's potential route and destination. The model then predicts the vessel's trajectory, considering these additional features by leveraging convolutional layers for spatial feature learning and a position-aware attention mechanism that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning. The probabilistic features have an F1 Score of approximately 85% and 75% for each feature type, respectively, demonstrating their effectiveness in augmenting information to the neural network. We test our model on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region known to be the habitat of North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW). Our model achieved a high R2 score of over 98% using various techniques and features. It stands out among other approaches as it can make complex decisions during turnings and path selection. Our study highlights the potential of data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for marine life species preservation.

The deployment of large-scale models, such as large language models (LLMs) and sophisticated image generation systems, incurs substantial costs due to their computational demands. To mitigate these costs and address challenges related to scalability and data security, there is a growing shift towards decentralized systems for deploying such models. In these decentralized environments, efficient inference acceleration becomes crucial to manage computational resources effectively and enhance system responsiveness. In this work, we address the challenge of selecting optimal acceleration methods in decentralized systems by introducing a meta-learning-based framework. This framework automates the selection process by learning from historical performance data of various acceleration techniques across different tasks. Unlike traditional methods that rely on random selection or expert intuition, our approach systematically identifies the best acceleration strategies based on the specific characteristics of each task. We demonstrate that our meta-learning framework not only streamlines the decision-making process but also consistently outperforms conventional methods in terms of efficiency and performance. Our results highlight the potential of meta-learning to revolutionize inference acceleration in decentralized AI systems, offering a path towards more democratic and economically feasible artificial intelligence solutions.

A key challenge for computationally intensive state-of-the-art Earth System models is to distinguish global warming signals from interannual variability. Here we introduce DLESyM, a parsimonious deep learning model that accurately simulates the Earth's current climate over 1000-year periods with no smoothing or drift. DLESyM simulations equal or exceed key metrics of seasonal and interannual variability--such as tropical cyclogenesis over the range of observed intensities, the cycle of the Indian Summer monsoon, and the climatology of mid-latitude blocking events--when compared to historical simulations from four leading models from the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project. DLESyM, trained on both historical reanalysis data and satellite observations, is an accurate, highly efficient model of the coupled Earth system, empowering long-range sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts while using a fraction of the energy and computational time required by traditional models.

Truck parking on freight corridors faces the major challenge of insufficient parking spaces. This is exacerbated by the Hour-of-Service (HOS) regulations, which often result in unauthorized parking practices, causing safety concerns. It has been shown that providing accurate parking usage prediction can be a cost-effective solution to reduce unsafe parking practices. In light of this, existing studies have developed various methods to predict the usage of a truck parking site and have demonstrated satisfactory accuracy. However, these studies focused on a single parking site, and few approaches have been proposed to predict the usage of multiple truck parking sites considering spatio-temporal dependencies, due to the lack of data. This paper aims to fill this gap and presents the Regional Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (RegT-GCN) to predict parking usage across the entire state to provide more comprehensive truck parking information. The framework leverages the topological structures of truck parking site locations and historical parking data to predict the occupancy rate considering spatio-temporal dependencies across a state. To achieve this, we introduce a Regional Decomposition approach, which effectively captures the geographical characteristics of the truck parking locations and their spatial correlations. Evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other baseline models, showing the effectiveness of our regional decomposition. The code is available at https://github.com/raynbowy23/RegT-GCN.

Stock markets play an important role in the global economy, where accurate stock price predictions can lead to significant financial returns. While existing transformer-based models have outperformed long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks in financial time series prediction, their high computational complexity and memory requirements limit their practicality for real-time trading and long-sequence data processing. To address these challenges, we propose SAMBA, an innovative framework for stock return prediction that builds on the Mamba architecture and integrates graph neural networks. SAMBA achieves near-linear computational complexity by utilizing a bidirectional Mamba block to capture long-term dependencies in historical price data and employing adaptive graph convolution to model dependencies between daily stock features. Our experimental results demonstrate that SAMBA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models in prediction accuracy, maintaining low computational complexity. The code and datasets are available at github.com/Ali-Meh619/SAMBA.

The next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation task aims to predict users' next destinations based on their historical movement data and plays a key role in location-based services and personalized applications. Accurate next POI recommendation depends on effectively modeling geographic information and POI transition relations, which are crucial for capturing spatial dependencies and user movement patterns. While Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong capabilities in semantic understanding and contextual reasoning, applying them to spatial tasks like next POI recommendation remains challenging. First, the infrequent nature of specific GPS coordinates makes it difficult for LLMs to model precise spatial contexts. Second, the lack of knowledge about POI transitions limits their ability to capture potential POI-POI relationships. To address these issues, we propose GA-LLM (Geography-Aware Large Language Model), a novel framework that enhances LLMs with two specialized components. The Geographic Coordinate Injection Module (GCIM) transforms GPS coordinates into spatial representations using hierarchical and Fourier-based positional encoding, enabling the model to understand geographic features from multiple perspectives. The POI Alignment Module (PAM) incorporates POI transition relations into the LLM's semantic space, allowing it to infer global POI relationships and generalize to unseen POIs. Experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of GA-LLM.

In the field of quantitative trading, it is common practice to transform raw historical stock data into indicative signals for the market trend. Such signals are called alpha factors. Alphas in formula forms are more interpretable and thus favored by practitioners concerned with risk. In practice, a set of formulaic alphas is often used together for better modeling precision, so we need to find synergistic formulaic alpha sets that work well together. However, most traditional alpha generators mine alphas one by one separately, overlooking the fact that the alphas would be combined later. In this paper, we propose a new alpha-mining framework that prioritizes mining a synergistic set of alphas, i.e., it directly uses the performance of the downstream combination model to optimize the alpha generator. Our framework also leverages the strong exploratory capabilities of reinforcement learning~(RL) to better explore the vast search space of formulaic alphas. The contribution to the combination models' performance is assigned to be the return used in the RL process, driving the alpha generator to find better alphas that improve upon the current set. Experimental evaluations on real-world stock market data demonstrate both the effectiveness and the efficiency of our framework for stock trend forecasting. The investment simulation results show that our framework is able to achieve higher returns compared to previous approaches.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Program repair techniques offer cost-saving benefits for debugging within software development and programming education scenarios. With the proven effectiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) in code-related tasks, researchers have explored their potential for program repair. However, it is crucial to recognize that existing repair benchmarks may have influenced LLM training data, potentially causing data leakage. To evaluate LLMs' realistic repair capabilities, (1) we introduce an extensive, non-crawled benchmark, referred to as TutorCode, comprising 1,239 C++ defect codes and associated information such as tutor guidance, solution description, failing test cases, and the corrected code. Our work assesses the repair performance of 12 LLMs on TutorCode, measuring repair correctness (TOP-5 and AVG-5) and patch precision (RPSR). (2) We then provide a comprehensive investigation into which types of extra information can help LLMs improve their performance in repairing defects. Among these types, tutor guidance was found to be the most effective information in enhancing LLM repair capabilities. To fully harness LLMs' conversational capabilities and the benefits of augmented information, (3) we introduce a novel conversational semi-automatic repair framework CREF assisting human tutor. It demonstrates a remarkable AVG-5 improvement of 17.2%-24.6% compared to the baseline, achieving an impressive AVG-5 of 76.6% when utilizing GPT-4. These results highlight the potential for enhancing LLMs' repair capabilities through interactions with tutors and historical conversations involving incorrect responses. The successful application of CREF in a real-world educational setting demonstrates its effectiveness in reducing tutors' workload and improving students' learning experience, while also showcasing its promise for facilitating other software engineering tasks, such as code review.

Recent advancements in large-scale video-language models have shown significant potential for real-time planning and detailed interactions. However, their high computational demands and the scarcity of annotated datasets limit their practicality for academic researchers. In this work, we introduce VideoLLaMB, a novel framework that utilizes temporal memory tokens within bridge layers to allow for the encoding of entire video sequences alongside historical visual data, effectively preserving semantic continuity and enhancing model performance across various tasks. This approach includes recurrent memory tokens and a SceneTilling algorithm, which segments videos into independent semantic units to preserve semantic integrity. Empirically, VideoLLaMB significantly outstrips existing video-language models, demonstrating a 5.5 points improvement over its competitors across three VideoQA benchmarks, and 2.06 points on egocentric planning. Comprehensive results on the MVBench show that VideoLLaMB-7B achieves markedly better results than previous 7B models of same LLM. Remarkably, it maintains robust performance as PLLaVA even as video length increases up to 8 times. Besides, the frame retrieval results on our specialized Needle in a Video Haystack (NIAVH) benchmark, further validate VideoLLaMB's prowess in accurately identifying specific frames within lengthy videos. Our SceneTilling algorithm also enables the generation of streaming video captions directly, without necessitating additional training. In terms of efficiency, VideoLLaMB, trained on 16 frames, supports up to 320 frames on a single Nvidia A100 GPU with linear GPU memory scaling, ensuring both high performance and cost-effectiveness, thereby setting a new foundation for long-form video-language models in both academic and practical applications.

Satellite connectivity is gaining increased attention as the demand for seamless internet access, especially in transportation and remote areas, continues to grow. For fast-moving objects such as aircraft, vehicles, or trains, satellite connectivity is critical due to their mobility and frequent presence in areas without terrestrial coverage. Maintaining reliable connectivity in these cases requires frequent switching between satellite beams, constellations, or orbits. To enhance user experience and address challenges like long switching times, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can analyze historical connectivity data and predict network quality at specific locations. This allows for proactive measures, such as network switching before connectivity issues arise. In this paper, we analyze a real dataset of communication between a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite and aircraft over multiple flights, using ML to predict signal quality. Our prediction model achieved an F1 score of 0.97 on the test data, demonstrating the accuracy of machine learning in predicting signal quality during flight. By enabling seamless broadband service, including roaming between different satellite constellations and providers, our model addresses the need for real-time predictions of signal quality. This approach can further be adapted to automate satellite and beam-switching mechanisms to improve overall communication efficiency. The model can also be retrained and applied to any moving object with satellite connectivity, using customized datasets, including connected vehicles and trains.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) depend on onboard sensors for perception, navigation, and control. However, these sensors are susceptible to physical attacks, such as GPS spoofing, that can corrupt state estimates and lead to unsafe behavior. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers adaptive control capabilities, existing safe RL methods are ineffective against such attacks. We present ARMOR (Adaptive Robust Manipulation-Optimized State Representations), an attack-resilient, model-free RL controller that enables robust UAV operation under adversarial sensor manipulation. Instead of relying on raw sensor observations, ARMOR learns a robust latent representation of the UAV's physical state via a two-stage training framework. In the first stage, a teacher encoder, trained with privileged attack information, generates attack-aware latent states for RL policy training. In the second stage, a student encoder is trained via supervised learning to approximate the teacher's latent states using only historical sensor data, enabling real-world deployment without privileged information. Our experiments show that ARMOR outperforms conventional methods, ensuring UAV safety. Additionally, ARMOR improves generalization to unseen attacks and reduces training cost by eliminating the need for iterative adversarial training.

Recent advances in deep learning and large language models (LLMs) have facilitated the deployment of the mixture-of-experts (MoE) mechanism in the stock investment domain. While these models have demonstrated promising trading performance, they are often unimodal, neglecting the wealth of information available in other modalities, such as textual data. Moreover, the traditional neural network-based router selection mechanism fails to consider contextual and real-world nuances, resulting in suboptimal expert selection. To address these limitations, we propose LLMoE, a novel framework that employs LLMs as the router within the MoE architecture. Specifically, we replace the conventional neural network-based router with LLMs, leveraging their extensive world knowledge and reasoning capabilities to select experts based on historical price data and stock news. This approach provides a more effective and interpretable selection mechanism. Our experiments on multimodal real-world stock datasets demonstrate that LLMoE outperforms state-of-the-art MoE models and other deep neural network approaches. Additionally, the flexible architecture of LLMoE allows for easy adaptation to various downstream tasks.

This paper tackles the challenge of real-time 3D trajectory prediction for UAVs, which is critical for applications such as aerial surveillance and defense. Existing prediction models that rely primarily on position data struggle with accuracy, especially when UAV movements fall outside the position domain used in training. Our research identifies a gap in utilizing velocity estimates, first-order dynamics, to better capture the dynamics and enhance prediction accuracy and generalizability in any position domain. To bridge this gap, we propose a new trajectory prediction method using Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) within sequence-based neural networks. Unlike traditional methods that rely on RNNs or transformers, this approach forecasts future velocities and positions based on historical velocity data instead of positions. This is designed to enhance prediction accuracy and scalability, overcoming challenges faced by conventional models in handling complex UAV dynamics. The methodology employs both synthetic and real-world 3D UAV trajectory data, capturing a wide range of flight patterns, speeds, and agility. Synthetic data is generated using the Gazebo simulator and PX4 Autopilot, while real-world data comes from the UZH-FPV and Mid-Air drone racing datasets. The GRU-based models significantly outperform state-of-the-art RNN approaches, with a mean square error (MSE) as low as 2 x 10^-8. Overall, our findings confirm the effectiveness of incorporating velocity data in improving the accuracy of UAV trajectory predictions across both synthetic and real-world scenarios, in and out of position data distributions. Finally, we open-source our 5000 trajectories dataset and a ROS 2 package to facilitate the integration with existing ROS-based UAV systems.

This onomasiological study uses diachronic word embeddings to explore how different words represented the same concepts over time, using historical word data from 1800 to 2000. We identify shifts in energy, transport, entertainment, and computing domains, revealing connections between language and societal changes. Our approach consisted in using diachronic word embeddings trained using word2vec with skipgram and aligning them using orthogonal Procrustes. We discuss possible difficulties linked to the relationships the method identifies. Moreover, we look at the ethical aspects of interpreting results, highlighting the need for expert insights to understand the method's significance.

High-Definition Maps (HD maps) are essential for the precise navigation and decision-making of autonomous vehicles, yet their creation and upkeep present significant cost and timeliness challenges. The online construction of HD maps using on-board sensors has emerged as a promising solution; however, these methods can be impeded by incomplete data due to occlusions and inclement weather. This paper proposes the PriorDrive framework to addresses these limitations by harnessing the power of prior maps, significantly enhancing the robustness and accuracy of online HD map construction. Our approach integrates a variety of prior maps, such as OpenStreetMap's Standard Definition Maps (SD maps), outdated HD maps from vendors, and locally constructed maps from historical vehicle data. To effectively encode this prior information into online mapping models, we introduce a Hybrid Prior Representation (HPQuery) that standardizes the representation of diverse map elements. At the core of PriorDrive is the Unified Vector Encoder (UVE), which employs hybrid prior embedding and a dual encoding mechanism to process vector data. Furthermore, we propose a segment-level and point-level pre-training strategy that enables the UVE to learn the prior distribution of vector data, thereby improving the encoder's generalizability and performance. Through extensive testing on the nuScenes, Argoverse 2 and OpenLane-V2, we demonstrate that PriorDrive is highly compatible with various online mapping models and substantially improves map prediction capabilities. The integration of prior maps through the PriorDrive framework offers a robust solution to the challenges of single-perception data, paving the way for more reliable autonomous vehicle navigation.

Accurate real-time traffic forecast is critical for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and it serves as the cornerstone of various smart mobility applications. Though this research area is dominated by deep learning, recent studies indicate that the accuracy improvement by developing new model structures is becoming marginal. Instead, we envision that the improvement can be achieved by transferring the "forecasting-related knowledge" across cities with different data distributions and network topologies. To this end, this paper aims to propose a novel transferable traffic forecasting framework: Domain Adversarial Spatial-Temporal Network (DASTNet). DASTNet is pre-trained on multiple source networks and fine-tuned with the target network's traffic data. Specifically, we leverage the graph representation learning and adversarial domain adaptation techniques to learn the domain-invariant node embeddings, which are further incorporated to model the temporal traffic data. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to employ adversarial multi-domain adaptation for network-wide traffic forecasting problems. DASTNet consistently outperforms all state-of-the-art baseline methods on three benchmark datasets. The trained DASTNet is applied to Hong Kong's new traffic detectors, and accurate traffic predictions can be delivered immediately (within one day) when the detector is available. Overall, this study suggests an alternative to enhance the traffic forecasting methods and provides practical implications for cities lacking historical traffic data.

This study explores the emerging area of continual panoptic segmentation, highlighting three key balances. First, we introduce past-class backtrace distillation to balance the stability of existing knowledge with the adaptability to new information. This technique retraces the features associated with past classes based on the final label assignment results, performing knowledge distillation targeting these specific features from the previous model while allowing other features to flexibly adapt to new information. Additionally, we introduce a class-proportional memory strategy, which aligns the class distribution in the replay sample set with that of the historical training data. This strategy maintains a balanced class representation during replay, enhancing the utility of the limited-capacity replay sample set in recalling prior classes. Moreover, recognizing that replay samples are annotated only for the classes of their original step, we devise balanced anti-misguidance losses, which combat the impact of incomplete annotations without incurring classification bias. Building upon these innovations, we present a new method named Balanced Continual Panoptic Segmentation (BalConpas). Our evaluation on the challenging ADE20K dataset demonstrates its superior performance compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. The official code is available at https://github.com/jinpeng0528/BalConpas.

Stock prediction is a topic undergoing intense study for many years. Finance experts and mathematicians have been working on a way to predict the future stock price so as to decide to buy the stock or sell it to make profit. Stock experts or economists, usually analyze on the previous stock values using technical indicators, sentiment analysis etc to predict the future stock price. In recent years, many researches have extensively used machine learning for predicting the stock behaviour. In this paper we propose data driven deep learning approach to predict the future stock value with the previous price with the feature extraction property of convolutional neural network and to use Neural Arithmetic Logic Units with it.

We present a quantum algorithm for portfolio optimization. We discuss the market data input, the processing of such data via quantum operations, and the output of financially relevant results. Given quantum access to the historical record of returns, the algorithm determines the optimal risk-return tradeoff curve and allows one to sample from the optimal portfolio. The algorithm can in principle attain a run time of {rm poly}(log(N)), where N is the size of the historical return dataset. Direct classical algorithms for determining the risk-return curve and other properties of the optimal portfolio take time {rm poly}(N) and we discuss potential quantum speedups in light of the recent works on efficient classical sampling approaches.

Ensuring sufficient exploration is a central challenge when training meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) agents to solve novel environments. Conventional solutions to the exploration-exploitation dilemma inject explicit incentives such as randomization, uncertainty bonuses, or intrinsic rewards to encourage exploration. In this work, we hypothesize that an agent trained solely to maximize a greedy (exploitation-only) objective can nonetheless exhibit emergent exploratory behavior, provided three conditions are met: (1) Recurring Environmental Structure, where the environment features repeatable regularities that allow past experience to inform future choices; (2) Agent Memory, enabling the agent to retain and utilize historical interaction data; and (3) Long-Horizon Credit Assignment, where learning propagates returns over a time frame sufficient for the delayed benefits of exploration to inform current decisions. Through experiments in stochastic multi-armed bandits and temporally extended gridworlds, we observe that, when both structure and memory are present, a policy trained on a strictly greedy objective exhibits information-seeking exploratory behavior. We further demonstrate, through controlled ablations, that emergent exploration vanishes if either environmental structure or agent memory is absent (Conditions 1 & 2). Surprisingly, removing long-horizon credit assignment (Condition 3) does not always prevent emergent exploration-a result we attribute to the pseudo-Thompson Sampling effect. These findings suggest that, under the right prerequisites, exploration and exploitation need not be treated as orthogonal objectives but can emerge from a unified reward-maximization process.

Logical page segmentation is an important step in document analysis, enabling better semantic representations, information retrieval, and text understanding. Previous approaches define logical segmentation either through text or geometric objects, relying on OCR or precise geometry. To avoid the need for OCR, we define the task purely as segmentation in the image domain. Furthermore, to ensure the evaluation remains unaffected by geometrical variations that do not impact text segmentation, we propose to use only foreground text pixels in the evaluation metric and disregard all background pixels. To support research in logical document segmentation, we introduce TextBite, a dataset of historical Czech documents spanning the 18th to 20th centuries, featuring diverse layouts from newspapers, dictionaries, and handwritten records. The dataset comprises 8,449 page images with 78,863 annotated segments of logically and thematically coherent text. We propose a set of baseline methods combining text region detection and relation prediction. The dataset, baselines and evaluation framework can be accessed at https://github.com/DCGM/textbite-dataset.

Historical weather records from Europe indicate that the Earth experienced substantial climate variability, which caused, for instance, the Little Ice Age and the global crisis in the period between the 14th and 19th centuries. However, it is still unclear how global this climate variability was because of the scarce meteorological data availability in other regions including East Asia, especially around the 17th century. In this context, Seungjeongwon Ilgi, a daily record of the Royal Secretariat of the Joseon Dynasty of Korea, is a precious source of historical meteorological records for the Korean Peninsula, as it covers 288 years of weather observations made during 1623-1910. We used the digital database of Seungjeongwon Ilgi to construct a machine-readable weather condition dataset. To this end, we extracted valid weather information from the original weather description text and compiled them into predefined weather categories. Additionally, we attempted to improve the usability of the dataset by converting the reported dates in the traditional calendar system to those in the Gregorian calendar. Finally, we outlined the promising implications of this dataset for meteorological and climatological studies, while describing the limitations of the dataset. Overall, future studies focusing on the climate and weather of the past could use this meteorological database for investigating long-term climate variability. Our datasets are publicly available at 10.5281/zenodo.8142701.

This work introduces HistNERo, the first Romanian corpus for Named Entity Recognition (NER) in historical newspapers. The dataset contains 323k tokens of text, covering more than half of the 19th century (i.e., 1817) until the late part of the 20th century (i.e., 1990). Eight native Romanian speakers annotated the dataset with five named entities. The samples belong to one of the following four historical regions of Romania, namely Bessarabia, Moldavia, Transylvania, and Wallachia. We employed this proposed dataset to perform several experiments for NER using Romanian pre-trained language models. Our results show that the best model achieved a strict F1-score of 55.69%. Also, by reducing the discrepancies between regions through a novel domain adaption technique, we improved the performance on this corpus to a strict F1-score of 66.80%, representing an absolute gain of more than 10%.

Despite well-documented consequences of the U.S. government's 1930s housing policies on racial wealth disparities, scholars have struggled to quantify its precise financial effects due to the inaccessibility of historical property appraisal records. Many counties still store these records in physical formats, making large-scale quantitative analysis difficult. We present an approach scholars can use to digitize historical housing assessment data, applying it to build and release a dataset for one county. Starting from publicly available scanned documents, we manually annotated property cards for over 12,000 properties to train and validate our methods. We use OCR to label data for an additional 50,000 properties, based on our two-stage approach combining classical computer vision techniques with deep learning-based OCR. For cases where OCR cannot be applied, such as when scanned documents are not available, we show how a regression model based on building feature data can estimate the historical values, and test the generalizability of this model to other counties. With these cost-effective tools, scholars, community activists, and policy makers can better analyze and understand the historical impacts of redlining.

Accurate text recognition for historical documents can greatly advance the study and preservation of cultural heritage. Existing vision-language models (VLMs), however, are designed for modern, standardized texts and are not equipped to read the diverse languages and scripts, irregular layouts, and frequent degradation found in historical materials. This paper presents CHURRO, a 3B-parameter open-weight VLM specialized for historical text recognition. The model is trained on CHURRO-DS, the largest historical text recognition dataset to date. CHURRO-DS unifies 155 historical corpora comprising 99,491 pages, spanning 22 centuries of textual heritage across 46 language clusters, including historical variants and dead languages. We evaluate several open-weight and closed VLMs and optical character recognition (OCR) systems on CHURRO-DS and find that CHURRO outperforms all other VLMs. On the CHURRO-DS test set, CHURRO achieves 82.3% (printed) and 70.1% (handwritten) normalized Levenshtein similarity, surpassing the second-best model, Gemini 2.5 Pro, by 1.4% and 6.5%, respectively, while being 15.5 times more cost-effective. By releasing the model and dataset, we aim to enable community-driven research to improve the readability of historical texts and accelerate scholarship.